This page shows a projection of the league table based on current ELO scores - by calculating the percentage likelihood of each remaining match, an "expected points" score is assigned to each club's matches, and from that, their final expected points total for the season is estimated. Standard deviation from this expected points total is also calculated and displayed, to give a likely range of points values for each team.
Inspired by ClubELO.com, the ELO rating system is a method of calculating and comparing the relative strengths of teams in competition. For every match played, the ELO scores of the two teams are considered, and adjusted for other factors (such as home advantage), to calculate the likelihood of the match result. When the actual result of the game is known, the ELO score is adjusted accordingly, comparing the expected outcome of the game with the actual outcome - so a victory over Manchester United will be worth more points than one over Supermarine. The resulting ELO score can be used to compare the strengths of teams over time, and to project future results based on the current form of all teams.
EFL Sky Bet League Two
Final Points Projection
A projection of the likelihood of the number of points that each team will accumulate, based on ELO scores and 10,000 simulations of the remainder of the season - the initial bar shows the current points, then the lighter colours show the potential points range where each team may finish on - the darker the shade, the higher the likelihood of the team finishing on that number of points.
Final League Outcome Projection
A projection of the likelihood of the season's outcome for each team, based on ELO scores and 10,000 simulations of the remainder of the season.
| Club | Promotion | Play-offs | Midtable | Relegation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 WalsallWalsall | 80.50% | 19.39% | 0.11% | |
 Bradford CityBradford | 78.31% | 21.34% | 0.35% | |
 Doncaster RoversDoncaster Rovers | 51.51% | 45.06% | 3.43% | |
 Port ValePort Vale | 39.20% | 54.87% | 5.93% | |
 AFC WimbledonWimbledon | 32.79% | 61.10% | 6.11% | |
 Notts CountyNotts County | 13.22% | 68.05% | 18.73% | |
 Grimsby TownGrimsby Town | 1.62% | 36.26% | 62.12% | |
 Crewe AlexandraCrewe Alexandra | 1.48% | 33.39% | 65.13% | |
 Colchester UnitedColchester United | 1.11% | 29.40% | 69.49% | |
 Salford CitySalford | 0.12% | 9.17% | 90.71% | |
 ChesterfieldChesterfield | 0.13% | 9.89% | 89.98% | |
 BromleyBromley | 0.01% | 4.63% | 95.36% | |
 Fleetwood TownFleetwood Town | 3.93% | 96.07% | ||
 Cheltenham TownCheltenham Town | 2.51% | 97.49% | ||
 Milton Keynes DonsMK Dons | 0.56% | 99.42% | 0.02% | |
 BarrowBarrow | 0.31% | 99.63% | 0.06% | |
 Swindon TownSwindon | 0.10% | 99.89% | 0.01% | |
 Newport CountyNewport County | 0.02% | 99.78% | 0.20% | |
 GillinghamGillingham | 0.02% | 99.64% | 0.34% | |
 Harrogate TownHarrogate Town | 95.84% | 4.16% | ||
 Accrington StanleyAccrington | 96.19% | 3.81% | ||
 Tranmere RoversTranmere Rovers | 77.26% | 22.74% | ||
 Carlisle UnitedCarlisle United | 16.06% | 83.94% | ||
 MorecambeMorecambe | 15.28% | 84.72% |
Final League Position Projection
A projection of the likelihood of where each team will finish in the table, based on ELO scores and 10,000 simulations of the remainder of the season.
| Club | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Club | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 |
| WalsallWalsall | 37.2 | 26.9 | 16.4 | 10.9 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | ||||||||||||||||
| Bradford CityBradford | 32.9 | 27.6 | 17.9 | 11.1 | 6.4 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | ||||||||||||||
| Doncaster RoversDoncaster Rovers | 13.6 | 17.1 | 20.9 | 18.1 | 13.6 | 9.2 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||||||||||
| Port ValePort Vale | 8.7 | 12.9 | 17.5 | 19.5 | 17.3 | 11.5 | 6.5 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | |||||||||||
| AFC WimbledonWimbledon | 6.1 | 10.7 | 16.0 | 19.2 | 19.5 | 14.7 | 7.8 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 | ||||||||||||
| Notts CountyNotts County | 1.5 | 3.8 | 8.0 | 12.7 | 18.5 | 21.8 | 15.1 | 9.2 | 4.4 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | |||||||||
| Grimsby TownGrimsby Town | 0.0 | 0.4 | 1.2 | 2.9 | 6.0 | 10.8 | 16.5 | 16.2 | 14.4 | 11.1 | 8.6 | 5.7 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | |||||||
| Crewe AlexandraCrewe Alexandra | 0.1 | 0.3 | 1.1 | 2.5 | 5.5 | 9.4 | 16.0 | 16.1 | 14.5 | 11.4 | 8.3 | 6.5 | 4.2 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | ||||||
| Colchester UnitedColchester United | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.8 | 2.1 | 4.7 | 8.6 | 14.0 | 15.2 | 13.8 | 12.3 | 10.2 | 7.2 | 5.2 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||||
| Salford CitySalford | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.5 | 1.1 | 2.8 | 4.9 | 7.8 | 9.9 | 11.5 | 12.1 | 11.6 | 11.1 | 9.8 | 7.2 | 4.8 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | ||||
| ChesterfieldChesterfield | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.5 | 1.1 | 3.0 | 5.3 | 8.3 | 11.2 | 12.5 | 11.8 | 12.1 | 10.6 | 8.4 | 6.2 | 4.6 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | |||||
| BromleyBromley | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 1.2 | 2.9 | 6.4 | 8.6 | 11.2 | 12.1 | 12.4 | 11.8 | 10.9 | 8.6 | 6.2 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.0 | |||||
| Fleetwood TownFleetwood Town | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.8 | 2.9 | 5.7 | 8.7 | 10.7 | 12.3 | 12.6 | 12.1 | 10.4 | 8.7 | 5.9 | 4.5 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 | |||||
| Cheltenham TownCheltenham Town | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.7 | 1.6 | 3.7 | 5.4 | 7.0 | 9.5 | 11.3 | 12.8 | 13.4 | 12.4 | 8.5 | 6.4 | 3.9 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.1 | 0.0 | |||||
| Milton Keynes DonsMK Dons | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.5 | 1.1 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 4.6 | 6.5 | 8.3 | 10.6 | 12.1 | 12.2 | 12.0 | 10.4 | 8.2 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 0.4 | 0.0 | |||||
| BarrowBarrow | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 1.5 | 2.3 | 3.2 | 4.8 | 6.8 | 8.8 | 11.5 | 13.9 | 13.7 | 12.7 | 10.0 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | ||||||
| Swindon TownSwindon | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 2.3 | 3.4 | 5.3 | 7.7 | 10.8 | 14.0 | 14.8 | 14.8 | 12.4 | 8.2 | 3.4 | 0.5 | 0.0 | |||||
| Newport CountyNewport County | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 1.3 | 2.5 | 3.7 | 5.6 | 8.3 | 11.7 | 15.2 | 16.2 | 15.1 | 11.8 | 5.6 | 1.8 | 0.2 | |||||||
| GillinghamGillingham | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 1.5 | 2.4 | 3.7 | 5.5 | 7.7 | 10.5 | 12.7 | 14.3 | 15.5 | 12.7 | 9.3 | 2.6 | 0.3 | 0.0 | ||||||
| Harrogate TownHarrogate Town | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 1.7 | 3.1 | 5.6 | 9.1 | 14.2 | 21.7 | 25.6 | 13.6 | 3.8 | 0.4 | ||||||||
| Accrington StanleyAccrington | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 1.6 | 3.0 | 5.1 | 8.7 | 13.8 | 21.2 | 26.8 | 14.6 | 3.6 | 0.2 | |||||||
| Tranmere RoversTranmere Rovers | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 1.0 | 2.1 | 4.4 | 8.9 | 18.0 | 42.2 | 18.3 | 4.4 | ||||||||||||
| Carlisle UnitedCarlisle United | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.9 | 2.9 | 11.8 | 35.7 | 48.3 | ||||||||||||||||
| MorecambeMorecambe | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.8 | 2.4 | 11.8 | 38.1 | 46.7 |
Final League Table Projection
A projection of the final league table, based on expected points calculated from ELO scores.
| Pos. | Team | Actual | Projected | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P | W | D | L | Pts | To Play | Win % | Draw % | Loss % | Pts | ||
| 1 |
Walsall
Walsall
|
38 | 20 | 10 | 8 | 70 | 8 | 36.6% | 27.0% | 36.5% | 80.9 |
| 2 |
Bradford City
Bradford
|
38 | 20 | 9 | 9 | 69 | 8 | 39.7% | 26.6% | 33.7% | 80.7 |
| 3 |
Doncaster Rovers
Doncaster Rovers
|
37 | 18 | 9 | 10 | 63 | 9 | 46.3% | 26.2% | 27.5% | 77.9 |
| 4 |
Port Vale
Port Vale
|
37 | 17 | 13 | 7 | 64 | 9 | 38.2% | 27.0% | 34.7% | 76.8 |
| 5 |
AFC Wimbledon
Wimbledon
|
38 | 18 | 10 | 10 | 64 | 8 | 38.5% | 27.0% | 34.5% | 75.4 |
| 6 |
Notts County
Notts County
|
38 | 17 | 11 | 10 | 62 | 8 | 36.5% | 26.9% | 36.6% | 72.9 |
| 7 |
Grimsby Town
Grimsby Town
|
38 | 18 | 5 | 15 | 59 | 8 | 32.8% | 26.8% | 40.4% | 69.0 |
| 8 |
Crewe Alexandra
Crewe Alexandra
|
38 | 14 | 16 | 8 | 58 | 8 | 34.0% | 27.0% | 39.0% | 68.3 |
| 9 |
Colchester United
Colchester United
|
38 | 14 | 16 | 8 | 58 | 8 | 31.7% | 26.4% | 41.9% | 67.7 |
| 10 |
Salford City
Salford
|
37 | 14 | 11 | 12 | 53 | 9 | 32.7% | 27.0% | 40.3% | 64.3 |
| 11 |
Chesterfield
Chesterfield
|
37 | 14 | 10 | 13 | 52 | 9 | 35.5% | 27.1% | 37.3% | 64.0 |
| 12 |
Bromley
Bromley
|
38 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 52 | 8 | 38.0% | 26.9% | 35.1% | 63.3 |
| 13 |
Fleetwood Town
Fleetwood Town
|
38 | 12 | 14 | 12 | 50 | 8 | 44.6% | 25.9% | 29.5% | 62.8 |
| 14 |
Cheltenham Town
Cheltenham Town
|
38 | 13 | 11 | 14 | 50 | 8 | 40.8% | 27.3% | 32.0% | 62.0 |
| 15 |
Milton Keynes Dons
MK Dons
|
37 | 13 | 6 | 18 | 45 | 9 | 42.1% | 26.6% | 31.4% | 58.7 |
| 16 |
Barrow
Barrow
|
37 | 12 | 9 | 16 | 45 | 9 | 37.8% | 27.3% | 34.9% | 57.7 |
| 17 |
Swindon Town
Swindon
|
38 | 11 | 15 | 12 | 48 | 8 | 28.6% | 26.0% | 45.4% | 56.9 |
| 18 |
Newport County
Newport County
|
38 | 13 | 7 | 18 | 46 | 8 | 34.4% | 26.7% | 38.8% | 56.4 |
| 19 |
Gillingham
Gillingham
|
37 | 11 | 10 | 16 | 43 | 9 | 37.5% | 26.6% | 35.9% | 55.5 |
| 20 |
Harrogate Town
Harrogate Town
|
38 | 11 | 8 | 19 | 41 | 8 | 35.7% | 26.8% | 37.5% | 51.7 |
| 21 |
Accrington Stanley
Accrington
|
38 | 10 | 11 | 17 | 41 | 8 | 33.6% | 26.7% | 39.7% | 51.2 |
| 22 |
Tranmere Rovers
Tranmere Rovers
|
38 | 8 | 13 | 17 | 37 | 8 | 34.0% | 27.3% | 38.7% | 47.3 |
| 23 |
Carlisle United
Carlisle United
|
37 | 7 | 9 | 21 | 30 | 9 | 31.8% | 26.8% | 41.4% | 41.0 |
| 24 |
Morecambe
Morecambe
|
38 | 8 | 6 | 24 | 30 | 8 | 35.9% | 27.2% | 36.9% | 40.8 |