Stat Attack

ELO League Table Projection

This page shows a projection of the league table based on current ELO scores - by calculating the percentage likelihood of each remaining match, an "expected points" score is assigned to each club's matches, and from that, their final expected points total for the season is estimated. Standard deviation from this expected points total is also calculated and displayed, to give a likely range of points values for each team.

Inspired by ClubELO.com, the ELO rating system is a method of calculating and comparing the relative strengths of teams in competition. For every match played, the ELO scores of the two teams are considered, and adjusted for other factors (such as home advantage), to calculate the likelihood of the match result. When the actual result of the game is known, the ELO score is adjusted accordingly, comparing the expected outcome of the game with the actual outcome - so a victory over Manchester United will be worth more points than one over Supermarine. The resulting ELO score can be used to compare the strengths of teams over time, and to project future results based on the current form of all teams.

EFL Sky Bet League Two

Final Points Projection

A projection of the likelihood of the number of points that each team will accumulate, based on ELO scores and 10,000 simulations of the remainder of the season - the initial bar shows the current points, then the lighter colours show the potential points range where each team may finish on - the darker the shade, the higher the likelihood of the team finishing on that number of points.

Final League Outcome Projection

A projection of the likelihood of the season's outcome for each team, based on ELO scores and 10,000 simulations of the remainder of the season.

Club PromotionPlay-offsMidtableRelegation
WalsallWalsall82.17% 16.98% 0.85%
AFC WimbledonWimbledon53.38% 37.92% 8.70%
Doncaster RoversDoncaster Rovers40.78% 46.17% 13.05%
Bradford CityBradford40.65% 44.98% 14.37%
Notts CountyNotts County36.78% 46.23% 16.99%
Port ValePort Vale28.42% 47.65% 23.93%
Grimsby TownGrimsby Town3.27% 24.81% 71.92%
Salford CitySalford3.84% 25.79% 70.37%
Crewe AlexandraCrewe Alexandra2.75% 21.93% 75.31% 0.01%
Fleetwood TownFleetwood Town2.99% 23.29% 73.71% 0.01%
Cheltenham TownCheltenham Town2.15% 19.01% 78.74% 0.10%
ChesterfieldChesterfield1.33% 15.85% 82.72% 0.10%
BromleyBromley0.66% 10.43% 88.77% 0.14%
Milton Keynes DonsMK Dons0.40% 7.55% 91.81% 0.24%
Colchester UnitedColchester United0.25% 4.73% 94.79% 0.23%
Newport CountyNewport County0.08% 2.49% 96.72% 0.71%
BarrowBarrow0.06% 2.08% 96.43% 1.43%
GillinghamGillingham0.03% 1.64% 95.98% 2.35%
Swindon TownSwindon0.01% 0.33% 96.60% 3.06%
Harrogate TownHarrogate Town 0.08% 87.49% 12.43%
Accrington StanleyAccrington 0.04% 81.39% 18.57%
Tranmere RoversTranmere Rovers 0.02% 62.94% 37.04%
MorecambeMorecambe 52.00% 48.00%
Carlisle UnitedCarlisle United 24.42% 75.58%

Final League Position Projection

A projection of the likelihood of where each team will finish in the table, based on ELO scores and 10,000 simulations of the remainder of the season.

Club 123456789101112131415161718192021222324
Club 123456789101112131415161718192021222324
WalsallWalsall46.5 22.3 13.3 8.2 4.9 2.5 1.3 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0
AFC WimbledonWimbledon17.6 18.6 17.3 14.0 10.9 7.7 5.3 3.3 2.2 1.4 0.9 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0
Doncaster RoversDoncaster Rovers10.0 15.3 15.5 15.3 13.0 10.4 7.5 4.8 3.0 1.9 1.4 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Bradford CityBradford9.4 15.0 16.3 15.0 13.0 10.1 7.0 5.0 3.4 2.4 1.6 0.9 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
Notts CountyNotts County8.7 13.7 14.4 14.3 13.4 10.4 8.2 5.5 3.9 2.7 1.9 1.2 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Port ValePort Vale6.3 9.9 12.2 12.9 13.2 12.3 9.2 7.1 5.7 3.8 2.6 2.0 1.2 1.0 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0
Grimsby TownGrimsby Town0.3 1.1 1.9 3.5 5.1 7.6 8.6 9.7 10.3 9.8 8.8 7.8 6.8 6.0 4.7 3.5 2.2 1.3 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0
Salford CitySalford0.3 1.2 2.3 3.5 5.5 7.5 9.4 9.7 9.7 9.4 8.7 8.0 7.1 5.4 4.6 3.3 2.3 1.2 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0
Crewe AlexandraCrewe Alexandra0.2 0.8 1.7 3.1 4.3 6.5 8.0 10.7 9.8 9.8 9.4 8.3 7.7 6.3 5.4 3.3 2.3 1.2 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Fleetwood TownFleetwood Town0.3 0.9 1.8 3.2 4.9 6.9 8.3 9.8 9.2 9.2 8.5 7.6 7.0 5.9 4.8 4.0 2.9 2.2 1.5 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0
Cheltenham TownCheltenham Town0.2 0.7 1.3 2.6 3.8 5.3 7.3 8.4 9.0 8.4 8.3 8.6 7.5 6.7 5.9 5.3 4.0 2.9 2.0 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.1
ChesterfieldChesterfield0.1 0.4 0.9 1.9 3.1 4.6 6.3 6.7 7.9 8.6 9.1 8.6 8.7 7.5 6.7 6.2 4.9 3.3 2.3 1.3 0.7 0.3 0.1
BromleyBromley0.1 0.2 0.4 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.4 5.3 6.4 8.3 8.7 9.3 9.4 9.5 8.3 7.1 5.6 4.6 3.2 2.1 0.9 0.4 0.1
Milton Keynes DonsMK Dons 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.5 1.8 3.6 4.6 5.7 7.0 7.9 8.7 8.7 8.7 8.9 8.2 7.4 6.0 4.7 3.1 1.6 0.6 0.2 0.0
Colchester UnitedColchester United0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.4 2.1 2.9 4.3 5.0 6.3 7.2 8.0 8.8 9.3 9.4 9.4 8.4 7.4 4.7 2.5 1.1 0.2 0.0
Newport CountyNewport County 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.2 2.5 3.3 3.9 5.1 6.4 6.9 8.7 9.4 10.0 10.0 9.8 8.5 6.6 3.9 1.8 0.6 0.1
BarrowBarrow 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.6 1.1 1.8 2.6 3.7 4.4 5.6 6.4 7.9 8.9 9.9 11.0 10.7 9.2 7.1 4.8 2.5 1.1 0.3
GillinghamGillingham 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.6 0.9 1.3 1.9 2.8 3.8 4.3 5.6 7.0 8.1 9.3 10.0 11.0 10.4 9.3 7.3 4.0 1.7 0.6
Swindon TownSwindon 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.3 1.4 2.3 3.5 4.7 6.4 8.2 10.6 12.4 14.3 14.2 9.8 6.0 2.6 0.5
Harrogate TownHarrogate Town 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.9 1.6 2.2 3.3 4.9 7.2 8.9 11.6 15.9 16.7 13.4 8.9 3.6
Accrington StanleyAccrington 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.9 1.2 1.8 2.5 4.0 5.4 8.0 10.1 13.5 16.9 16.0 12.5 6.1
Tranmere RoversTranmere Rovers 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.1 1.7 2.7 4.3 6.4 9.8 14.3 21.0 23.2 13.9
MorecambeMorecambe 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.6 1.0 1.6 2.9 4.7 6.9 13.2 20.6 26.4 21.7
Carlisle UnitedCarlisle United 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.6 3.0 6.3 11.9 22.3 53.3

Final League Table Projection

A projection of the final league table, based on expected points calculated from ELO scores.

Pos. Team Actual Projected
P W D L Pts To Play Win % Draw % Loss % Pts
1 Walsall Walsall 31 19 6 6 63 15 35.9% 26.8% 37.3% 83.2
2 AFC Wimbledon Wimbledon 30 16 7 7 55 16 39.0% 26.9% 34.2% 78.0
3 Doncaster Rovers Doncaster Rovers 31 15 7 9 52 15 46.3% 26.1% 27.6% 76.7
4 Bradford City Bradford 31 15 9 7 54 15 41.2% 26.8% 32.0% 76.5
5 Notts County Notts County 30 15 8 7 53 16 38.3% 27.1% 34.7% 75.7
6 Port Vale Port Vale 30 14 10 6 52 16 38.4% 27.1% 34.5% 74.8
7 Grimsby Town Grimsby Town 31 15 3 13 48 15 33.7% 26.9% 39.4% 67.2
8 Salford City Salford 31 13 9 9 48 15 33.3% 26.9% 39.8% 67.0
9 Crewe Alexandra Crewe Alexandra 32 12 13 7 49 14 32.8% 26.8% 40.5% 66.5
10 Fleetwood Town Fleetwood Town 30 10 10 10 40 16 45.3% 26.2% 28.4% 66.0
11 Cheltenham Town Cheltenham Town 30 11 8 11 41 16 41.8% 26.6% 31.7% 65.3
12 Chesterfield Chesterfield 30 11 9 10 42 16 36.5% 26.9% 36.6% 63.8
13 Bromley Bromley 31 10 12 9 42 15 37.2% 26.8% 36.0% 62.8
14 Milton Keynes Dons MK Dons 31 11 6 14 39 15 41.0% 26.6% 32.4% 61.4
15 Colchester United Colchester United 30 9 14 7 41 16 30.2% 26.5% 43.3% 59.7
16 Newport County Newport County 31 11 7 13 40 15 33.1% 26.7% 40.1% 58.9
17 Barrow Barrow 31 10 7 14 37 15 37.0% 26.9% 36.1% 57.7
18 Gillingham Gillingham 30 9 7 14 34 16 38.2% 26.8% 35.0% 56.6
19 Swindon Town Swindon 32 9 11 12 38 14 30.2% 26.1% 43.7% 54.3
20 Harrogate Town Harrogate Town 32 9 6 17 33 14 35.0% 26.5% 38.5% 51.4
21 Accrington Stanley Accrington 30 7 9 14 30 16 32.9% 27.1% 40.0% 50.1
22 Tranmere Rovers Tranmere Rovers 31 6 10 15 28 15 33.6% 27.1% 39.3% 47.2
23 Morecambe Morecambe 31 7 5 19 26 15 33.3% 27.1% 39.6% 45.1
24 Carlisle United Carlisle United 31 5 7 19 22 15 33.4% 26.8% 39.8% 41.0