Stat Attack

ELO League Table Projection

This page shows a projection of the league table based on current ELO scores - by calculating the percentage likelihood of each remaining match, an "expected points" score is assigned to each club's matches, and from that, their final expected points total for the season is estimated. Standard deviation from this expected points total is also calculated and displayed, to give a likely range of points values for each team.

Inspired by ClubELO.com, the ELO rating system is a method of calculating and comparing the relative strengths of teams in competition. For every match played, the ELO scores of the two teams are considered, and adjusted for other factors (such as home advantage), to calculate the likelihood of the match result. When the actual result of the game is known, the ELO score is adjusted accordingly, comparing the expected outcome of the game with the actual outcome - so a victory over Manchester United will be worth more points than one over Supermarine. The resulting ELO score can be used to compare the strengths of teams over time, and to project future results based on the current form of all teams.

EFL Sky Bet League Two

Final Points Projection

A projection of the likelihood of the number of points that each team will accumulate, based on ELO scores and 10,000 simulations of the remainder of the season - the initial bar shows the current points, then the lighter colours show the potential points range where each team may finish on - the darker the shade, the higher the likelihood of the team finishing on that number of points.

Final League Outcome Projection

A projection of the likelihood of the season's outcome for each team, based on ELO scores and 10,000 simulations of the remainder of the season.

Club PromotionPlay-offsMidtableRelegation
Milton Keynes DonsMK Dons100.00%
BromleyBromley100.00%
Cambridge UnitedCambridge66.79% 33.21%
Salford CitySalford26.36% 73.64%
Notts CountyNotts County6.85% 93.15%
Grimsby TownGrimsby Town 100.00%
ChesterfieldChesterfield 61.48% 38.52%
Swindon TownSwindon 38.52% 61.48%
BarnetBarnet 100.00%
Crewe AlexandraCrewe Alexandra 100.00%
Oldham AthleticOldham Athletic 100.00%
WalsallWalsall 100.00%
Colchester UnitedColchester United 100.00%
Bristol RoversBristol Rovers 100.00%
Fleetwood TownFleetwood Town 100.00%
Accrington StanleyAccrington 100.00%
Cheltenham TownCheltenham Town 100.00%
GillinghamGillingham 100.00%
Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury Town 100.00%
Newport CountyNewport County 86.83% 13.17%
Tranmere RoversTranmere Rovers 95.07% 4.93%
Crawley TownCrawley Town 72.70% 27.30%
Harrogate TownHarrogate Town 45.13% 54.87%
BarrowBarrow 0.27% 99.73%

Final League Position Projection

A projection of the likelihood of where each team will finish in the table, based on ELO scores and 10,000 simulations of the remainder of the season.

Club 123456789101112131415161718192021222324
Club 123456789101112131415161718192021222324
Milton Keynes DonsMK Dons67.9 32.1
BromleyBromley32.1 58.4 9.4
Cambridge UnitedCambridge 9.4 57.4 26.5 6.7
Salford CitySalford 26.4 37.2 25.7 10.7
Notts CountyNotts County 6.9 28.2 39.8 25.2
Grimsby TownGrimsby Town 8.1 27.7 40.7 23.5
ChesterfieldChesterfield 0.0 15.2 46.3 20.2 18.3
Swindon TownSwindon 8.3 30.2 31.9 29.6
BarnetBarnet 47.9 52.1
Crewe AlexandraCrewe Alexandra 43.1 36.1 18.4 2.5
Oldham AthleticOldham Athletic 46.0 35.7 14.5 3.8
WalsallWalsall 7.5 13.9 52.3 26.4
Colchester UnitedColchester United 3.4 14.3 14.9 57.6 9.8
Bristol RoversBristol Rovers 9.8 54.3 35.9
Fleetwood TownFleetwood Town 35.9 64.1
Accrington StanleyAccrington 71.4 28.6
Cheltenham TownCheltenham Town 28.6 41.7 29.7
GillinghamGillingham 25.7 42.9 31.4
Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury Town 4.1 27.4 68.6
Newport CountyNewport County 29.8 29.5 27.5 13.2
Tranmere RoversTranmere Rovers 39.5 33.0 22.5 4.9
Crawley TownCrawley Town 20.3 21.0 31.4 26.8 0.5
Harrogate TownHarrogate Town 10.4 16.5 18.3 44.9 9.9
BarrowBarrow 0.3 10.2 89.6

Final League Table Projection

A projection of the final league table, based on expected points calculated from ELO scores. The projected points range shows the likely range of points for each team – for example, Milton Keynes Dons have a 90% chance of finishing between 85 and 88 points, a 50% chance of finishing between 85 and 88 points (this is the interquartile range), with their median expected points being 86.

Pos. Team Actual Projected Projected Points Range
P W D L Pts To Play Win % Draw % Loss % 90% range 50% range Exp. Pts
1 Milton Keynes Dons MK Dons 45 24 13 8 85 1 41.6% 28.0% 30.4% 85 - 88 85 - 88 86
2 Bromley Bromley 45 23 15 7 84 1 55.6% 23.5% 20.9% 84 - 87 85 - 87 87
3 Cambridge United Cambridge 45 22 15 8 81 1 44.8% 27.6% 27.6% 81 - 84 81 - 84 82
4 Salford City Salford 45 25 5 15 80 1 47.8% 24.7% 27.5% 80 - 83 80 - 83 81
5 Notts County Notts County 45 24 7 14 79 1 49.0% 24.3% 26.7% 79 - 82 79 - 82 80
6 Grimsby Town Grimsby Town 45 22 11 12 77 1 55.1% 23.1% 21.8% 77 - 80 78 - 80 80
7 Chesterfield Chesterfield 45 20 16 9 76 1 34.1% 27.4% 38.5% 76 - 79 76 - 79 77
8 Swindon Town Swindon 45 22 9 14 75 1 38.5% 27.4% 34.1% 75 - 78 75 - 78 76
9 Barnet Barnet 45 20 13 12 73 1 47.9% 27.4% 24.7% 73 - 76 74 - 76 74
10 Crewe Alexandra Crewe Alexandra 45 19 9 17 66 1 27.6% 27.6% 44.8% 66 - 69 66 - 69 67
11 Oldham Athletic Oldham Athletic 45 17 14 14 65 1 53.1% 23.7% 23.2% 65 - 68 66 - 68 68
12 Walsall Walsall 45 18 11 16 65 1 20.9% 23.5% 55.6% 65 - 68 65 - 66 65
13 Colchester United Colchester United 45 17 12 16 63 1 35.5% 27.5% 37.1% 63 - 66 63 - 66 64
14 Bristol Rovers Bristol Rovers 45 19 4 22 61 1 26.7% 24.3% 49.0% 61 - 64 61 - 64 62
15 Fleetwood Town Fleetwood Town 45 15 15 15 60 1 30.4% 28.0% 41.6% 60 - 63 60 - 63 61
16 Accrington Stanley Accrington 45 14 11 20 53 1 23.2% 23.7% 53.1% 53 - 56 53 - 54 53
17 Cheltenham Town Cheltenham Town 45 14 10 21 52 1 37.1% 27.5% 35.5% 52 - 55 52 - 55 53
18 Gillingham Gillingham 45 12 14 19 50 1 40.8% 27.8% 31.4% 50 - 53 50 - 53 51
19 Shrewsbury Town Shrewsbury Town 45 13 10 22 49 1 31.4% 27.8% 40.8% 49 - 52 49 - 52 50
20 Newport County Newport County 45 11 7 27 40 1 27.8% 27.4% 44.7% 40 - 43 40 - 43 41
21 Tranmere Rovers Tranmere Rovers 45 10 10 25 40 1 21.8% 23.1% 55.1% 40 - 43 40 - 41 40
22 Crawley Town Crawley Town 45 8 15 22 39 1 27.5% 24.7% 47.8% 39 - 42 39 - 42 40
23 Harrogate Town Harrogate Town 45 10 9 26 39 1 24.7% 27.4% 47.9% 39 - 42 39 - 40 40
24 Barrow Barrow 45 9 9 27 36 1 44.7% 27.4% 27.8% 36 - 39 36 - 39 37