This page shows a projection of the league table based on current ELO scores - by calculating the percentage likelihood of each remaining match, an "expected points" score is assigned to each club's matches, and from that, their final expected points total for the season is estimated. Standard deviation from this expected points total is also calculated and displayed, to give a likely range of points values for each team.
Inspired by ClubELO.com, the ELO rating system is a method of calculating and comparing the relative strengths of teams in competition. For every match played, the ELO scores of the two teams are considered, and adjusted for other factors (such as home advantage), to calculate the likelihood of the match result. When the actual result of the game is known, the ELO score is adjusted accordingly, comparing the expected outcome of the game with the actual outcome - so a victory over Manchester United will be worth more points than one over Supermarine. The resulting ELO score can be used to compare the strengths of teams over time, and to project future results based on the current form of all teams.
EFL Sky Bet League Two
Final Points Projection
A projection of the likelihood of the number of points that each team will accumulate, based on ELO scores and 10,000 simulations of the remainder of the season - the initial bar shows the current points, then the lighter colours show the potential points range where each team may finish on - the darker the shade, the higher the likelihood of the team finishing on that number of points.
Final League Outcome Projection
A projection of the likelihood of the season's outcome for each team, based on ELO scores and 10,000 simulations of the remainder of the season.
| Club | Promotion | Play-offs | Midtable | Relegation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Doncaster RoversDoncaster Rovers | 44.02% | 29.76% | 26.18% | 0.04% |
 Port ValePort Vale | 38.46% | 31.23% | 30.26% | 0.05% |
 Fleetwood TownFleetwood Town | 32.95% | 29.45% | 37.37% | 0.23% |
 Milton Keynes DonsMK Dons | 27.54% | 30.95% | 41.25% | 0.26% |
 WalsallWalsall | 24.60% | 28.00% | 46.98% | 0.42% |
 AFC WimbledonWimbledon | 24.98% | 27.68% | 46.66% | 0.68% |
 Bradford CityBradford | 20.41% | 28.91% | 50.27% | 0.41% |
 Notts CountyNotts County | 19.53% | 27.14% | 52.79% | 0.54% |
 Crewe AlexandraCrewe Alexandra | 13.20% | 22.26% | 63.58% | 0.96% |
 GillinghamGillingham | 12.46% | 22.05% | 63.86% | 1.63% |
 Grimsby TownGrimsby Town | 7.40% | 17.38% | 72.97% | 2.25% |
 Cheltenham TownCheltenham Town | 7.93% | 19.09% | 70.48% | 2.50% |
 BarrowBarrow | 6.43% | 15.65% | 74.96% | 2.96% |
 ChesterfieldChesterfield | 5.35% | 14.78% | 76.25% | 3.62% |
 Salford CitySalford | 3.42% | 10.23% | 79.45% | 6.90% |
 Tranmere RoversTranmere Rovers | 3.08% | 9.10% | 79.52% | 8.30% |
 BromleyBromley | 2.70% | 9.42% | 79.94% | 7.94% |
 Newport CountyNewport County | 2.02% | 7.95% | 81.34% | 8.69% |
 Harrogate TownHarrogate Town | 1.42% | 6.58% | 81.36% | 10.64% |
 Accrington StanleyAccrington | 1.09% | 5.30% | 78.66% | 14.95% |
 Colchester UnitedColchester United | 0.52% | 2.71% | 72.35% | 24.42% |
 Carlisle UnitedCarlisle United | 0.25% | 2.13% | 70.69% | 26.93% |
 Swindon TownSwindon | 0.18% | 1.30% | 64.37% | 34.15% |
 MorecambeMorecambe | 0.06% | 0.95% | 58.46% | 40.53% |
Final League Position Projection
A projection of the likelihood of where each team will finish in the table, based on ELO scores and 10,000 simulations of the remainder of the season.
| Club | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Club | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 |
| Doncaster RoversDoncaster Rovers | 19.0 | 13.7 | 11.4 | 9.1 | 8.3 | 6.3 | 6.1 | 4.5 | 4.0 | 3.7 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | |
| Port ValePort Vale | 15.1 | 13.0 | 10.4 | 9.1 | 8.6 | 6.9 | 6.6 | 5.5 | 4.6 | 4.2 | 3.5 | 2.9 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | |
| Fleetwood TownFleetwood Town | 12.3 | 10.9 | 9.7 | 9.0 | 7.4 | 7.0 | 6.1 | 5.3 | 5.4 | 4.3 | 4.1 | 3.2 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| Milton Keynes DonsMK Dons | 9.3 | 9.4 | 8.8 | 9.1 | 7.7 | 7.6 | 6.6 | 6.1 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 4.2 | 4.0 | 3.6 | 2.9 | 2.6 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| WalsallWalsall | 8.4 | 8.0 | 8.2 | 7.6 | 7.1 | 6.8 | 6.5 | 6.2 | 5.3 | 4.9 | 4.7 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 3.7 | 3.2 | 2.7 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| AFC WimbledonWimbledon | 8.7 | 8.4 | 7.8 | 7.6 | 7.2 | 6.7 | 6.3 | 5.9 | 5.7 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 4.0 | 3.6 | 3.2 | 3.1 | 2.7 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.3 |
| Bradford CityBradford | 5.6 | 7.2 | 7.6 | 7.7 | 7.5 | 7.2 | 6.5 | 6.2 | 6.0 | 5.5 | 5.6 | 4.6 | 4.0 | 3.9 | 3.0 | 2.9 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| Notts CountyNotts County | 5.7 | 7.0 | 6.9 | 6.9 | 6.9 | 6.7 | 6.7 | 6.2 | 6.1 | 5.8 | 5.5 | 4.4 | 4.6 | 3.9 | 3.6 | 3.0 | 2.7 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| Crewe AlexandraCrewe Alexandra | 3.9 | 4.3 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.4 | 6.2 | 5.7 | 6.4 | 5.6 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 5.2 | 5.3 | 5.0 | 4.6 | 4.6 | 3.5 | 3.4 | 3.1 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| GillinghamGillingham | 3.2 | 4.3 | 5.0 | 5.1 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 6.1 | 5.9 | 5.5 | 5.4 | 5.0 | 4.9 | 4.5 | 4.6 | 3.9 | 3.4 | 3.0 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.6 |
| Grimsby TownGrimsby Town | 1.8 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 4.1 | 4.0 | 4.5 | 4.8 | 5.6 | 5.4 | 5.6 | 5.7 | 6.2 | 5.8 | 5.4 | 5.3 | 5.4 | 4.7 | 4.9 | 4.3 | 3.7 | 2.8 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0.8 |
| Cheltenham TownCheltenham Town | 1.8 | 2.7 | 3.4 | 4.0 | 4.4 | 5.3 | 5.5 | 5.1 | 5.9 | 5.6 | 5.4 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 5.6 | 5.2 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 4.5 | 3.6 | 3.3 | 2.7 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 0.9 |
| BarrowBarrow | 1.2 | 2.0 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 3.7 | 4.1 | 4.5 | 4.6 | 5.3 | 5.4 | 5.8 | 5.7 | 5.6 | 5.8 | 5.9 | 5.9 | 5.0 | 5.1 | 4.5 | 4.2 | 3.2 | 3.0 | 1.9 | 1.1 |
| ChesterfieldChesterfield | 1.3 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 3.1 | 3.7 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.6 | 4.9 | 5.2 | 5.5 | 6.0 | 5.8 | 6.0 | 5.7 | 5.5 | 5.8 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 4.4 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1.1 |
| Salford CitySalford | 0.6 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 3.4 | 3.7 | 4.1 | 4.3 | 4.4 | 5.0 | 5.5 | 5.7 | 6.0 | 6.1 | 6.5 | 6.3 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 5.3 | 5.0 | 4.4 | 2.5 |
| Tranmere RoversTranmere Rovers | 0.6 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 3.0 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 5.0 | 5.3 | 5.6 | 5.8 | 6.4 | 5.8 | 6.2 | 6.3 | 6.0 | 5.7 | 4.8 | 3.5 |
| BromleyBromley | 0.5 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 2.6 | 2.9 | 3.4 | 3.8 | 4.2 | 4.7 | 4.5 | 5.4 | 5.3 | 5.4 | 6.3 | 6.3 | 6.1 | 6.3 | 6.5 | 6.2 | 5.6 | 4.4 | 3.5 |
| Newport CountyNewport County | 0.4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 3.1 | 2.9 | 4.1 | 4.0 | 5.0 | 4.9 | 5.3 | 6.0 | 5.6 | 6.4 | 7.1 | 6.8 | 6.8 | 7.2 | 6.2 | 5.1 | 3.6 |
| Harrogate TownHarrogate Town | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 2.6 | 3.1 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 4.4 | 4.8 | 5.1 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 6.6 | 7.0 | 7.6 | 7.4 | 7.6 | 7.0 | 6.0 | 4.7 |
| Accrington StanleyAccrington | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 2.5 | 2.9 | 3.3 | 4.0 | 3.9 | 5.0 | 5.3 | 5.7 | 6.3 | 6.5 | 7.6 | 7.9 | 8.4 | 7.7 | 8.4 | 6.5 |
| Colchester UnitedColchester United | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 3.1 | 3.6 | 4.2 | 4.5 | 5.2 | 6.6 | 7.4 | 8.2 | 9.1 | 11.0 | 12.0 | 12.5 |
| Carlisle UnitedCarlisle United | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 2.4 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 5.2 | 6.2 | 7.0 | 8.4 | 9.7 | 11.7 | 13.0 | 14.0 |
| Swindon TownSwindon | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 2.4 | 2.8 | 3.2 | 3.8 | 4.6 | 5.6 | 6.8 | 8.0 | 9.6 | 11.8 | 14.9 | 19.3 |
| MorecambeMorecambe | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 2.4 | 2.9 | 3.4 | 4.2 | 4.8 | 5.8 | 7.2 | 9.4 | 11.8 | 15.8 | 24.7 |
Final League Table Projection
A projection of the final league table, based on expected points calculated from ELO scores.
| Pos. | Team | Actual | Projected | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P | W | D | L | Pts | To Play | Win % | Draw % | Loss % | Pts | ||
| 1 |
Doncaster Rovers
Doncaster Rovers
|
16 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 28 | 30 | 45.1% | 26.1% | 28.8% | 76.4 |
| 2 |
Port Vale
Port Vale
|
16 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 33 | 30 | 38.3% | 26.6% | 35.1% | 75.5 |
| 3 |
Fleetwood Town
Fleetwood Town
|
14 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 21 | 32 | 45.6% | 26.0% | 28.4% | 73.1 |
| 4 |
Milton Keynes Dons
MK Dons
|
16 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 27 | 30 | 41.2% | 26.5% | 32.3% | 72.1 |
| 5 |
Walsall
Walsall
|
14 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 27 | 32 | 36.8% | 26.7% | 36.5% | 70.8 |
| 6 |
AFC Wimbledon
Wimbledon
|
13 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 22 | 33 | 40.2% | 26.8% | 33.0% | 70.7 |
| 7 |
Bradford City
Bradford
|
16 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 23 | 30 | 43.2% | 26.4% | 30.5% | 69.8 |
| 8 |
Notts County
Notts County
|
16 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 27 | 30 | 38.2% | 26.7% | 35.1% | 69.4 |
| 9 |
Crewe Alexandra
Crewe Alexandra
|
15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 28 | 31 | 33.0% | 26.6% | 40.4% | 66.9 |
| 10 |
Gillingham
Gillingham
|
15 | 7 | 2 | 6 | 23 | 31 | 37.4% | 26.9% | 35.6% | 66.2 |
| 11 |
Grimsby Town
Grimsby Town
|
16 | 8 | 1 | 7 | 25 | 30 | 34.6% | 26.6% | 38.8% | 64.1 |
| 12 |
Cheltenham Town
Cheltenham Town
|
16 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 18 | 30 | 42.3% | 26.5% | 31.2% | 64.0 |
| 13 |
Barrow
Barrow
|
16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 22 | 30 | 36.0% | 27.0% | 36.9% | 62.5 |
| 14 |
Chesterfield
Chesterfield
|
16 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 22 | 30 | 35.2% | 26.8% | 38.0% | 61.7 |
| 15 |
Salford City
Salford
|
16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 21 | 30 | 33.8% | 26.7% | 39.5% | 59.4 |
| 16 |
Tranmere Rovers
Tranmere Rovers
|
14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 17 | 32 | 34.6% | 26.7% | 38.7% | 58.8 |
| 17 |
Bromley
Bromley
|
15 | 3 | 7 | 5 | 16 | 31 | 36.5% | 26.9% | 36.5% | 58.3 |
| 18 |
Newport County
Newport County
|
16 | 6 | 2 | 8 | 20 | 30 | 33.1% | 26.6% | 40.2% | 57.8 |
| 19 |
Harrogate Town
Harrogate Town
|
16 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 18 | 30 | 34.0% | 26.7% | 39.4% | 56.6 |
| 20 |
Accrington Stanley
Accrington
|
15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 17 | 31 | 31.9% | 26.7% | 41.4% | 54.9 |
| 21 |
Colchester United
Colchester United
|
15 | 2 | 8 | 5 | 14 | 31 | 31.4% | 26.5% | 42.1% | 51.4 |
| 22 |
Carlisle United
Carlisle United
|
16 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 12 | 30 | 34.2% | 26.7% | 39.1% | 50.8 |
| 23 |
Swindon Town
Swindon
|
16 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 13 | 30 | 30.9% | 26.4% | 42.7% | 48.7 |
| 24 |
Morecambe
Morecambe
|
16 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 10 | 30 | 32.6% | 26.7% | 40.7% | 47.4 |