Stat Attack

ELO League Table Projection

This page shows a projection of the league table based on current ELO scores - by calculating the percentage likelihood of each remaining match, an "expected points" score is assigned to each club's matches, and from that, their final expected points total for the season is estimated. Standard deviation from this expected points total is also calculated and displayed, to give a likely range of points values for each team.

Inspired by ClubELO.com, the ELO rating system is a method of calculating and comparing the relative strengths of teams in competition. For every match played, the ELO scores of the two teams are considered, and adjusted for other factors (such as home advantage), to calculate the likelihood of the match result. When the actual result of the game is known, the ELO score is adjusted accordingly, comparing the expected outcome of the game with the actual outcome - so a victory over Manchester United will be worth more points than one over Supermarine. The resulting ELO score can be used to compare the strengths of teams over time, and to project future results based on the current form of all teams.

EFL Sky Bet League Two

Final Points Projection

A projection of the likelihood of the number of points that each team will accumulate, based on ELO scores and 10,000 simulations of the remainder of the season - the initial bar shows the current points, then the lighter colours show the potential points range where each team may finish on - the darker the shade, the higher the likelihood of the team finishing on that number of points.

Final League Outcome Projection

A projection of the likelihood of the season's outcome for each team, based on ELO scores and 10,000 simulations of the remainder of the season.

Club PromotionPlay-offsMidtableRelegation
Doncaster RoversDoncaster Rovers96.59% 3.41%
Port ValePort Vale89.36% 10.64%
Bradford CityBradford57.61% 42.39%
WalsallWalsall54.05% 45.95%
AFC WimbledonWimbledon2.05% 96.78% 1.17%
Notts CountyNotts County0.34% 92.78% 6.88%
Grimsby TownGrimsby Town 38.03% 61.97%
Colchester UnitedColchester United 31.22% 68.78%
Salford CitySalford 23.46% 76.54%
ChesterfieldChesterfield 14.61% 85.39%
BromleyBromley 0.24% 99.76%
Crewe AlexandraCrewe Alexandra 0.49% 99.51%
Swindon TownSwindon 100.00%
Fleetwood TownFleetwood Town 100.00%
Cheltenham TownCheltenham Town 100.00%
BarrowBarrow 100.00%
GillinghamGillingham 100.00%
Milton Keynes DonsMK Dons 100.00%
Harrogate TownHarrogate Town 100.00%
Newport CountyNewport County 100.00%
Accrington StanleyAccrington 99.91% 0.09%
Tranmere RoversTranmere Rovers 94.01% 5.99%
Carlisle UnitedCarlisle United 6.08% 93.92%
MorecambeMorecambe 100.00%

Final League Position Projection

A projection of the likelihood of where each team will finish in the table, based on ELO scores and 10,000 simulations of the remainder of the season.

Club 123456789101112131415161718192021222324
Club 123456789101112131415161718192021222324
Doncaster RoversDoncaster Rovers63.4 21.5 11.7 3.4
Port ValePort Vale21.2 44.3 23.9 10.6
Bradford CityBradford11.8 16.6 29.2 35.5 6.6 0.3
WalsallWalsall3.7 17.6 32.8 37.0 8.3 0.7
AFC WimbledonWimbledon 2.1 9.9 59.0 22.2 5.7 1.1 0.0
Notts CountyNotts County 0.3 3.5 20.8 51.4 17.1 6.2 0.7
Grimsby TownGrimsby Town 4.0 10.7 23.4 26.5 22.0 11.2 2.3 0.0
Colchester UnitedColchester United 1.0 6.5 23.7 23.1 19.2 19.1 6.4 1.0 0.0
Salford CitySalford 0.4 5.2 17.9 20.3 20.0 21.4 11.9 2.9 0.1
ChesterfieldChesterfield 0.1 3.1 11.5 18.0 26.4 22.7 13.0 5.0 0.3
BromleyBromley 0.2 2.2 5.0 9.5 25.4 29.2 16.3 9.3 2.6 0.3
Crewe AlexandraCrewe Alexandra 0.5 2.7 6.0 12.8 28.4 27.2 17.7 4.3 0.5
Swindon TownSwindon 0.8 3.4 9.2 20.2 35.5 20.2 9.0 1.8 0.0
Fleetwood TownFleetwood Town 0.7 4.6 10.8 23.4 28.6 25.9 6.0
Cheltenham TownCheltenham Town 0.3 3.4 10.2 17.9 25.3 29.6 13.4
BarrowBarrow 2.3 6.6 9.0 23.5 27.3 25.4 5.8
GillinghamGillingham 0.0 1.4 6.7 17.0 65.6 8.2 1.0 0.0
Milton Keynes DonsMK Dons 6.0 54.9 24.8 11.2 3.0 0.1
Harrogate TownHarrogate Town 2.7 24.4 39.6 23.3 9.6 0.5
Newport CountyNewport County 0.5 9.4 22.6 35.6 23.8 8.0
Accrington StanleyAccrington 3.1 10.2 20.7 46.2 19.8 0.1
Tranmere RoversTranmere Rovers 0.1 1.9 9.2 17.3 65.5 6.0
Carlisle UnitedCarlisle United 0.0 6.1 90.0 4.0
MorecambeMorecambe 4.0 96.0

Final League Table Projection

A projection of the final league table, based on expected points calculated from ELO scores.

Pos. Team Actual Projected
P W D L Pts To Play Win % Draw % Loss % Pts
1 Doncaster Rovers Doncaster Rovers 44 22 12 10 78 2 42.1% 27.2% 30.7% 81.1
2 Port Vale Port Vale 44 21 14 9 77 2 36.3% 26.0% 37.7% 79.7
3 Bradford City Bradford 44 21 12 11 75 2 32.5% 27.7% 39.8% 77.5
4 Walsall Walsall 44 20 14 10 74 2 42.3% 25.6% 32.1% 77.1
5 AFC Wimbledon Wimbledon 44 19 13 12 70 2 41.3% 25.7% 33.0% 73.0
6 Notts County Notts County 44 19 12 13 69 2 34.8% 26.5% 38.7% 71.6
7 Grimsby Town Grimsby Town 44 20 7 17 67 2 28.9% 25.1% 46.0% 69.2
8 Colchester United Colchester United 44 16 18 10 66 2 32.0% 27.7% 40.3% 68.5
9 Salford City Salford 44 17 14 13 65 2 37.0% 28.0% 35.0% 67.8
10 Chesterfield Chesterfield 44 17 13 14 64 2 41.7% 26.3% 32.0% 67.0
11 Bromley Bromley 44 16 14 14 62 2 32.9% 27.7% 39.4% 64.5
12 Crewe Alexandra Crewe Alexandra 44 15 17 12 62 2 32.6% 26.7% 40.7% 64.5
13 Swindon Town Swindon 44 15 15 14 60 2 27.0% 27.5% 45.6% 62.2
14 Fleetwood Town Fleetwood Town 44 14 15 15 57 2 44.1% 25.9% 30.0% 60.2
15 Cheltenham Town Cheltenham Town 44 15 12 17 57 2 43.2% 26.4% 30.4% 60.1
16 Barrow Barrow 44 15 12 17 57 2 39.1% 28.0% 33.0% 59.9
17 Gillingham Gillingham 44 13 15 16 54 2 40.0% 27.3% 32.7% 56.9
18 Milton Keynes Dons MK Dons 44 14 8 22 50 2 48.0% 25.5% 26.5% 53.4
19 Harrogate Town Harrogate Town 44 13 11 20 50 2 35.6% 27.2% 37.2% 52.7
20 Newport County Newport County 44 13 10 21 49 2 30.5% 25.9% 43.6% 51.3
21 Accrington Stanley Accrington 44 11 14 19 47 2 32.6% 25.9% 41.6% 49.5
22 Tranmere Rovers Tranmere Rovers 44 10 15 19 45 2 39.7% 26.8% 33.5% 47.9
23 Carlisle United Carlisle United 44 10 11 23 41 2 33.4% 27.0% 39.6% 43.5
24 Morecambe Morecambe 44 10 6 28 36 2 32.6% 26.3% 41.1% 38.5