This page shows a projection of the league table based on current ELO scores - by calculating the percentage likelihood of each remaining match, an "expected points" score is assigned to each club's matches, and from that, their final expected points total for the season is estimated. Standard deviation from this expected points total is also calculated and displayed, to give a likely range of points values for each team.
Inspired by ClubELO.com, the ELO rating system is a method of calculating and comparing the relative strengths of teams in competition. For every match played, the ELO scores of the two teams are considered, and adjusted for other factors (such as home advantage), to calculate the likelihood of the match result. When the actual result of the game is known, the ELO score is adjusted accordingly, comparing the expected outcome of the game with the actual outcome - so a victory over Manchester United will be worth more points than one over Supermarine. The resulting ELO score can be used to compare the strengths of teams over time, and to project future results based on the current form of all teams.
EFL Sky Bet League Two
Final Points Projection
A projection of the likelihood of the number of points that each team will accumulate, based on ELO scores and 10,000 simulations of the remainder of the season - the initial bar shows the current points, then the lighter colours show the potential points range where each team may finish on - the darker the shade, the higher the likelihood of the team finishing on that number of points.
Final League Outcome Projection
A projection of the likelihood of the season's outcome for each team, based on ELO scores and 10,000 simulations of the remainder of the season.
| Club | Promotion | Play-offs | Midtable | Relegation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 WalsallWalsall | 46.93% | 27.64% | 25.39% | 0.04% |
 Swindon TownSwindon | 36.16% | 29.97% | 33.79% | 0.08% |
 BromleyBromley | 32.07% | 30.10% | 37.66% | 0.17% |
 Cambridge UnitedCambridge United | 23.52% | 28.32% | 47.81% | 0.35% |
 ChesterfieldChesterfield | 23.58% | 27.72% | 48.35% | 0.35% |
 BarnetBarnet | 19.29% | 26.72% | 53.35% | 0.64% |
 Fleetwood TownFleetwood Town | 17.61% | 25.34% | 56.31% | 0.74% |
 Notts CountyNotts County | 17.91% | 25.26% | 56.35% | 0.48% |
 Salford CitySalford | 14.15% | 24.23% | 60.62% | 1.00% |
 Crewe AlexandraCrewe Alexandra | 12.85% | 22.08% | 63.92% | 1.15% |
 GillinghamGillingham | 12.09% | 22.09% | 64.75% | 1.07% |
 Grimsby TownGrimsby Town | 12.12% | 21.93% | 64.86% | 1.09% |
 Colchester UnitedColchester United | 11.25% | 21.00% | 66.43% | 1.32% |
 Milton Keynes DonsMK Dons | 6.34% | 15.37% | 76.35% | 1.94% |
 Crawley TownCrawley Town | 3.26% | 10.96% | 79.91% | 5.87% |
 Oldham AthleticOldham Athletic | 2.59% | 8.36% | 82.07% | 6.98% |
 Tranmere RoversTranmere Rovers | 2.77% | 8.66% | 80.36% | 8.21% |
 BarrowBarrow | 1.63% | 5.97% | 82.44% | 9.96% |
 Bristol RoversBristol Rovers | 1.60% | 6.25% | 81.09% | 11.06% |
 Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury Town | 0.62% | 3.00% | 77.30% | 19.08% |
 Cheltenham TownCheltenham Town | 0.62% | 2.83% | 76.79% | 19.76% |
 Accrington StanleyAccrington | 0.54% | 3.27% | 77.68% | 18.51% |
 Harrogate TownHarrogate Town | 0.49% | 2.80% | 73.75% | 22.96% |
 Newport CountyNewport County | 0.01% | 0.13% | 32.67% | 67.19% |
Final League Position Projection
A projection of the likelihood of where each team will finish in the table, based on ELO scores and 10,000 simulations of the remainder of the season.
| Club | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Club | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 |
| WalsallWalsall | 22.0 | 14.2 | 10.7 | 8.4 | 7.4 | 6.7 | 5.2 | 4.8 | 4.3 | 3.2 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | |
| Swindon TownSwindon | 14.0 | 11.8 | 10.3 | 8.8 | 8.4 | 7.0 | 5.8 | 5.3 | 4.8 | 4.3 | 3.6 | 3.4 | 2.9 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | |
| BromleyBromley | 11.9 | 10.5 | 9.6 | 8.9 | 8.0 | 7.1 | 6.1 | 5.8 | 5.2 | 4.5 | 3.9 | 3.4 | 3.1 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Cambridge UnitedCambridge United | 7.9 | 7.7 | 7.9 | 7.2 | 7.5 | 7.1 | 6.6 | 6.2 | 5.9 | 5.4 | 4.8 | 4.4 | 4.2 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 2.7 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| ChesterfieldChesterfield | 7.5 | 8.4 | 7.6 | 7.4 | 7.0 | 6.8 | 6.5 | 6.0 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 4.9 | 4.4 | 3.8 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.0 |
| BarnetBarnet | 6.2 | 6.4 | 6.7 | 7.3 | 6.5 | 6.3 | 6.6 | 6.0 | 5.8 | 5.3 | 5.5 | 4.8 | 4.6 | 4.3 | 3.2 | 3.1 | 2.9 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| Fleetwood TownFleetwood Town | 5.3 | 6.2 | 6.2 | 6.4 | 6.2 | 6.8 | 6.0 | 6.4 | 5.4 | 6.1 | 5.4 | 4.8 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.0 | 3.5 | 3.1 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.3 |
| Notts CountyNotts County | 5.3 | 6.3 | 6.4 | 6.1 | 6.3 | 6.4 | 6.5 | 5.7 | 5.9 | 5.9 | 5.2 | 5.1 | 4.6 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 3.9 | 3.0 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| Salford CitySalford | 3.9 | 4.9 | 5.4 | 6.1 | 6.1 | 5.9 | 6.1 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 5.6 | 5.5 | 5.4 | 4.8 | 4.9 | 4.2 | 4.0 | 3.6 | 3.1 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| Crewe AlexandraCrewe Alexandra | 3.4 | 4.3 | 5.1 | 5.0 | 5.7 | 5.5 | 5.9 | 5.8 | 5.7 | 5.9 | 5.6 | 5.7 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 4.6 | 4.4 | 4.1 | 3.0 | 3.4 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| GillinghamGillingham | 3.3 | 4.0 | 4.9 | 5.0 | 5.3 | 5.6 | 6.3 | 6.1 | 5.3 | 5.6 | 5.8 | 5.4 | 5.5 | 4.8 | 4.9 | 4.3 | 4.0 | 3.7 | 3.4 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| Grimsby TownGrimsby Town | 3.1 | 4.4 | 4.6 | 5.5 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 5.9 | 5.7 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 5.5 | 5.9 | 5.6 | 5.3 | 4.7 | 4.3 | 3.8 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 2.8 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| Colchester UnitedColchester United | 2.8 | 4.1 | 4.4 | 5.2 | 5.0 | 5.3 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 5.8 | 5.5 | 6.0 | 6.2 | 5.3 | 4.7 | 5.0 | 4.6 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 3.5 | 2.8 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| Milton Keynes DonsMK Dons | 1.2 | 2.2 | 2.9 | 3.2 | 3.8 | 4.2 | 4.1 | 4.5 | 5.4 | 5.3 | 5.4 | 5.7 | 6.1 | 6.1 | 6.0 | 5.6 | 5.8 | 5.3 | 4.8 | 4.5 | 3.4 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 |
| Crawley TownCrawley Town | 0.6 | 0.9 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 2.6 | 3.0 | 3.2 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 4.3 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 5.5 | 5.7 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.2 | 6.0 | 5.9 | 5.8 | 5.7 | 5.0 | 4.0 | 1.9 |
| Oldham AthleticOldham Athletic | 0.4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 2.7 | 3.2 | 3.5 | 4.0 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 5.0 | 5.3 | 5.6 | 6.3 | 6.9 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 6.8 | 6.7 | 6.2 | 4.5 | 2.5 |
| Tranmere RoversTranmere Rovers | 0.6 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 2.7 | 3.2 | 3.8 | 4.0 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.8 | 5.3 | 6.0 | 6.5 | 6.3 | 6.4 | 6.6 | 6.7 | 6.4 | 6.0 | 5.6 | 2.7 |
| BarrowBarrow | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 3.4 | 3.7 | 4.5 | 4.9 | 5.5 | 6.0 | 6.1 | 6.8 | 7.3 | 6.9 | 7.6 | 7.5 | 7.1 | 6.5 | 3.5 |
| Bristol RoversBristol Rovers | 0.2 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 2.6 | 3.0 | 3.5 | 3.7 | 4.3 | 4.8 | 5.3 | 5.8 | 6.5 | 7.5 | 7.6 | 8.6 | 8.0 | 7.8 | 6.5 | 4.6 |
| Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury Town | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.9 | 3.4 | 4.1 | 4.6 | 5.1 | 6.1 | 6.8 | 7.9 | 8.7 | 9.9 | 10.4 | 11.3 | 7.8 |
| Cheltenham TownCheltenham Town | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 3.2 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 5.1 | 6.1 | 6.8 | 7.6 | 8.7 | 10.0 | 10.9 | 11.6 | 8.1 |
| Accrington StanleyAccrington | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 3.5 | 3.8 | 4.6 | 5.6 | 5.8 | 6.7 | 8.2 | 9.0 | 9.5 | 10.6 | 10.8 | 7.7 |
| Harrogate TownHarrogate Town | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 2.6 | 3.1 | 3.6 | 4.2 | 5.0 | 5.5 | 6.5 | 7.4 | 8.1 | 9.4 | 12.0 | 13.2 | 9.8 |
| Newport CountyNewport County | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 2.3 | 3.1 | 4.2 | 6.7 | 10.6 | 18.1 | 49.1 |
Final League Table Projection
A projection of the final league table, based on expected points calculated from ELO scores. The projected points range shows the likely range of points for each team – for example, Walsall have a 90% chance of finishing between 61 and 92 points, a 50% chance of finishing between 70 and 83 points (this is the interquartile range), with their median expected points being 77.
| Pos. | Team | Actual | Projected | Projected Points Range | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P | W | D | L | Pts | To Play | Win % | Draw % | Loss % | 90% range | 50% range | Exp. Pts | ||
| 1 |
Walsall
Walsall
|
17 | 10 | 2 | 5 | 32 | 29 | 42.5% | 26.4% | 31.1% | 61 - 92 | 70 - 83 | 77 |
| 2 |
Swindon Town
Swindon
|
17 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 31 | 29 | 40.8% | 26.4% | 32.7% | 59 - 90 | 68 - 80 | 74 |
| 3 |
Bromley
Bromley
|
17 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 30 | 29 | 40.6% | 26.5% | 32.8% | 58 - 88 | 67 - 79 | 73 |
| 4 |
Cambridge United
Cambridge United
|
17 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 26 | 29 | 42.3% | 26.6% | 31.2% | 55 - 86 | 64 - 77 | 70 |
| 5 |
Chesterfield
Chesterfield
|
17 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 28 | 29 | 39.9% | 26.7% | 33.4% | 55 - 86 | 64 - 77 | 70 |
| 6 |
Barnet
Barnet
|
17 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 24 | 29 | 42.9% | 26.2% | 30.9% | 53 - 85 | 62 - 75 | 69 |
| 7 |
Fleetwood Town
Fleetwood Town
|
17 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 26 | 29 | 39.9% | 26.7% | 33.4% | 53 - 84 | 62 - 75 | 68 |
| 8 |
Notts County
Notts County
|
17 | 8 | 4 | 5 | 28 | 29 | 37.5% | 26.7% | 35.8% | 53 - 84 | 62 - 75 | 68 |
| 9 |
Salford City
Salford
|
17 | 8 | 2 | 7 | 26 | 29 | 38.7% | 26.9% | 34.5% | 52 - 83 | 61 - 74 | 67 |
| 10 |
Crewe Alexandra
Crewe Alexandra
|
17 | 8 | 3 | 6 | 27 | 29 | 36.7% | 26.5% | 36.8% | 52 - 82 | 60 - 73 | 66 |
| 11 |
Gillingham
Gillingham
|
17 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 27 | 29 | 36.1% | 26.9% | 37.0% | 51 - 82 | 60 - 72 | 66 |
| 12 |
Grimsby Town
Grimsby Town
|
17 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 26 | 29 | 37.0% | 26.9% | 36.1% | 51 - 81 | 60 - 72 | 66 |
| 13 |
Colchester United
Colchester United
|
17 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 24 | 29 | 38.9% | 26.8% | 34.3% | 50 - 81 | 59 - 72 | 66 |
| 14 |
Milton Keynes Dons
MK Dons
|
17 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 29 | 29 | 30.0% | 26.4% | 43.6% | 49 - 78 | 57 - 69 | 63 |
| 15 |
Crawley Town
Crawley Town
|
17 | 4 | 5 | 8 | 17 | 29 | 40.1% | 26.9% | 33.0% | 44 - 75 | 53 - 66 | 60 |
| 16 |
Oldham Athletic
Oldham Athletic
|
17 | 5 | 8 | 4 | 23 | 29 | 31.8% | 26.6% | 41.7% | 44 - 74 | 52 - 64 | 58 |
| 17 |
Tranmere Rovers
Tranmere Rovers
|
17 | 4 | 8 | 5 | 20 | 29 | 35.0% | 26.7% | 38.3% | 43 - 74 | 52 - 64 | 58 |
| 18 |
Barrow
Barrow
|
17 | 5 | 4 | 8 | 19 | 29 | 34.6% | 26.8% | 38.6% | 42 - 72 | 51 - 63 | 57 |
| 19 |
Bristol Rovers
Bristol Rovers
|
17 | 5 | 2 | 10 | 17 | 29 | 36.5% | 26.7% | 36.8% | 42 - 72 | 50 - 63 | 56 |
| 20 |
Shrewsbury Town
Shrewsbury Town
|
17 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 16 | 29 | 34.0% | 26.8% | 39.3% | 39 - 69 | 47 - 59 | 53 |
| 21 |
Cheltenham Town
Cheltenham Town
|
17 | 5 | 2 | 10 | 17 | 29 | 32.8% | 26.6% | 40.7% | 39 - 68 | 47 - 59 | 53 |
| 22 |
Accrington Stanley
Accrington
|
17 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 18 | 29 | 31.5% | 26.5% | 42.0% | 38 - 68 | 47 - 59 | 53 |
| 23 |
Harrogate Town
Harrogate Town
|
17 | 4 | 3 | 10 | 15 | 29 | 33.8% | 26.8% | 39.4% | 38 - 68 | 46 - 58 | 52 |
| 24 |
Newport County
Newport County
|
17 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 11 | 29 | 26.8% | 25.8% | 47.5% | 28 - 57 | 36 - 47 | 42 |