Stat Attack

ELO League Table Projection

This page shows a projection of the league table based on current ELO scores - by calculating the percentage likelihood of each remaining match, an "expected points" score is assigned to each club's matches, and from that, their final expected points total for the season is estimated. Standard deviation from this expected points total is also calculated and displayed, to give a likely range of points values for each team.

Inspired by ClubELO.com, the ELO rating system is a method of calculating and comparing the relative strengths of teams in competition. For every match played, the ELO scores of the two teams are considered, and adjusted for other factors (such as home advantage), to calculate the likelihood of the match result. When the actual result of the game is known, the ELO score is adjusted accordingly, comparing the expected outcome of the game with the actual outcome - so a victory over Manchester United will be worth more points than one over Supermarine. The resulting ELO score can be used to compare the strengths of teams over time, and to project future results based on the current form of all teams.

EFL Sky Bet League Two

Final Points Projection

A projection of the likelihood of the number of points that each team will accumulate, based on ELO scores and 10,000 simulations of the remainder of the season - the initial bar shows the current points, then the lighter colours show the potential points range where each team may finish on - the darker the shade, the higher the likelihood of the team finishing on that number of points.

Final League Outcome Projection

A projection of the likelihood of the season's outcome for each team, based on ELO scores and 10,000 simulations of the remainder of the season.

Club PromotionPlay-offsMidtableRelegation
BromleyBromley99.34% 0.66%
Milton Keynes DonsMK Dons70.08% 29.73% 0.19%
Cambridge UnitedCambridge60.77% 38.34% 0.89%
Notts CountyNotts County49.88% 49.73% 0.39%
Salford CitySalford9.97% 77.30% 12.73%
Swindon TownSwindon6.79% 81.83% 11.38%
ChesterfieldChesterfield2.17% 54.56% 43.27%
Oldham AthleticOldham Athletic0.26% 31.51% 68.23%
Grimsby TownGrimsby Town0.74% 27.55% 71.71%
BarnetBarnet 3.10% 96.90%
Crewe AlexandraCrewe Alexandra 5.51% 94.49%
WalsallWalsall 0.16% 99.84%
Colchester UnitedColchester United 0.02% 99.98%
Fleetwood TownFleetwood Town 100.00%
Bristol RoversBristol Rovers 100.00%
Accrington StanleyAccrington 100.00%
GillinghamGillingham 100.00%
Cheltenham TownCheltenham Town 100.00%
Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury Town 100.00%
Crawley TownCrawley Town 95.54% 4.46%
Tranmere RoversTranmere Rovers 79.17% 20.83%
Newport CountyNewport County 47.78% 52.22%
BarrowBarrow 46.10% 53.90%
Harrogate TownHarrogate Town 31.41% 68.59%

Final League Position Projection

A projection of the likelihood of where each team will finish in the table, based on ELO scores and 10,000 simulations of the remainder of the season.

Club 123456789101112131415161718192021222324
Club 123456789101112131415161718192021222324
BromleyBromley85.1 11.0 3.2 0.6 0.0
Milton Keynes DonsMK Dons5.9 34.2 30.0 16.4 8.5 3.7 1.1 0.2 0.0
Cambridge UnitedCambridge7.1 28.3 25.4 19.2 10.9 6.1 2.2 0.7 0.2 0.0
Notts CountyNotts County1.9 22.5 25.5 26.0 14.7 6.9 2.2 0.4 0.0
Salford CitySalford0.1 2.6 7.3 13.9 21.1 25.7 16.7 8.9 3.0 0.8 0.1
Swindon TownSwindon 0.9 5.9 15.2 25.2 24.2 17.2 8.2 2.7 0.4 0.0
ChesterfieldChesterfield 0.4 1.8 5.5 10.5 15.0 23.6 18.2 13.1 7.1 3.6 1.1 0.1
Oldham AthleticOldham Athletic 0.3 1.2 4.5 9.1 16.7 26.2 20.9 11.3 6.1 2.9 0.9 0.0
Grimsby TownGrimsby Town 0.2 0.6 2.0 4.3 7.9 13.4 18.5 20.6 14.8 10.2 5.6 2.0 0.0
BarnetBarnet 0.0 0.4 2.7 8.9 18.5 28.9 22.7 12.7 5.2 0.1
Crewe AlexandraCrewe Alexandra 0.0 0.3 1.0 4.2 8.4 15.1 21.2 25.9 17.1 6.7 0.0
WalsallWalsall 0.2 1.0 4.1 10.0 19.9 35.2 28.4 1.2 0.0
Colchester UnitedColchester United 0.0 0.4 1.7 5.5 11.5 24.8 50.5 5.3 0.4 0.0
Fleetwood TownFleetwood Town 0.0 0.6 4.9 58.8 22.7 10.3 2.5 0.1
Bristol RoversBristol Rovers 0.0 0.5 16.9 37.1 26.9 15.2 3.3 0.1
Accrington StanleyAccrington 0.1 0.9 13.9 24.2 34.1 22.1 4.7 0.1
GillinghamGillingham 0.1 3.1 11.6 20.7 39.8 20.2 4.6 0.0
Cheltenham TownCheltenham Town 0.6 3.9 7.2 16.9 50.2 19.3 1.6 0.2 0.0
Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury Town 0.1 0.8 3.6 20.6 67.1 7.3 0.6 0.0
Crawley TownCrawley Town 0.7 6.5 50.9 26.1 11.4 3.9 0.5
Tranmere RoversTranmere Rovers 0.3 1.6 20.9 29.9 26.5 16.2 4.6
Newport CountyNewport County 0.0 0.3 7.6 17.0 22.9 23.9 28.3
BarrowBarrow 0.3 7.7 15.9 22.2 28.2 25.7
Harrogate TownHarrogate Town 0.1 4.0 10.5 16.9 27.8 40.8

Final League Table Projection

A projection of the final league table, based on expected points calculated from ELO scores. The projected points range shows the likely range of points for each team – for example, Bromley have a 90% chance of finishing between 85 and 93 points, a 50% chance of finishing between 87 and 91 points (this is the interquartile range), with their median expected points being 89.

Pos. Team Actual Projected Projected Points Range
P W D L Pts To Play Win % Draw % Loss % 90% range 50% range Exp. Pts
1 Bromley Bromley 42 23 14 5 83 4 42.2% 26.4% 31.3% 85 - 93 87 - 91 89
2 Milton Keynes Dons MK Dons 42 21 13 8 76 4 46.6% 24.5% 28.9% 78 - 86 81 - 85 83
3 Cambridge United Cambridge 41 20 14 7 74 5 47.8% 25.1% 27.2% 78 - 87 80 - 84 82
4 Notts County Notts County 42 23 7 12 76 4 40.3% 26.0% 33.7% 78 - 86 80 - 83 82
5 Salford City Salford 42 23 4 15 73 4 40.7% 25.9% 33.4% 74 - 83 77 - 81 79
6 Swindon Town Swindon 43 22 8 13 74 3 43.0% 26.7% 30.4% 75 - 83 77 - 80 78
7 Chesterfield Chesterfield 41 18 14 9 68 5 45.6% 25.8% 28.6% 71 - 81 74 - 78 76
8 Oldham Athletic Oldham Athletic 41 17 14 10 65 5 50.7% 25.5% 23.8% 69 - 78 72 - 76 74
9 Grimsby Town Grimsby Town 40 18 11 11 65 6 37.9% 26.8% 35.3% 68 - 79 71 - 76 73
10 Barnet Barnet 42 17 13 12 64 4 49.2% 24.7% 26.2% 67 - 76 69 - 73 71
11 Crewe Alexandra Crewe Alexandra 42 19 9 14 66 4 31.2% 26.8% 42.0% 67 - 75 69 - 73 71
12 Walsall Walsall 42 17 11 14 62 4 43.3% 25.2% 31.5% 64 - 72 66 - 70 68
13 Colchester United Colchester United 42 16 12 14 60 4 43.6% 25.9% 30.4% 62 - 70 64 - 68 66
14 Fleetwood Town Fleetwood Town 42 14 13 15 55 4 34.0% 26.6% 39.4% 56 - 65 58 - 62 60
15 Bristol Rovers Bristol Rovers 42 16 4 22 52 4 40.7% 26.2% 33.1% 53 - 62 56 - 59 58
16 Accrington Stanley Accrington 41 14 9 18 51 5 28.7% 26.0% 45.2% 52 - 61 55 - 58 57
17 Gillingham Gillingham 41 12 13 16 49 5 28.5% 26.1% 45.4% 50 - 59 53 - 56 54
18 Cheltenham Town Cheltenham Town 40 11 10 19 43 6 39.5% 26.1% 34.4% 46 - 57 49 - 54 52
19 Shrewsbury Town Shrewsbury Town 42 12 8 22 44 4 29.4% 27.0% 43.6% 45 - 53 47 - 50 48
20 Crawley Town Crawley Town 42 8 13 21 37 4 32.7% 26.5% 40.8% 38 - 47 40 - 44 42
21 Tranmere Rovers Tranmere Rovers 41 9 9 23 36 5 19.6% 23.4% 57.0% 36 - 45 38 - 42 40
22 Newport County Newport County 42 9 7 26 34 4 27.8% 26.6% 45.6% 35 - 43 37 - 40 38
23 Barrow Barrow 41 8 9 24 33 5 24.9% 24.0% 51.1% 34 - 43 36 - 40 38
24 Harrogate Town Harrogate Town 42 8 9 25 33 4 26.2% 25.8% 48.0% 33 - 42 35 - 39 37