Stat Attack

ELO League Table Projection

This page shows a projection of the league table based on current ELO scores - by calculating the percentage likelihood of each remaining match, an "expected points" score is assigned to each club's matches, and from that, their final expected points total for the season is estimated. Standard deviation from this expected points total is also calculated and displayed, to give a likely range of points values for each team.

Inspired by ClubELO.com, the ELO rating system is a method of calculating and comparing the relative strengths of teams in competition. For every match played, the ELO scores of the two teams are considered, and adjusted for other factors (such as home advantage), to calculate the likelihood of the match result. When the actual result of the game is known, the ELO score is adjusted accordingly, comparing the expected outcome of the game with the actual outcome - so a victory over Manchester United will be worth more points than one over Supermarine. The resulting ELO score can be used to compare the strengths of teams over time, and to project future results based on the current form of all teams.

EFL Sky Bet League Two

Final Points Projection

A projection of the likelihood of the number of points that each team will accumulate, based on ELO scores and 10,000 simulations of the remainder of the season - the initial bar shows the current points, then the lighter colours show the potential points range where each team may finish on - the darker the shade, the higher the likelihood of the team finishing on that number of points.

Final League Outcome Projection

A projection of the likelihood of the season's outcome for each team, based on ELO scores and 10,000 simulations of the remainder of the season.

Club PromotionPlay-offsMidtableRelegation
Cambridge UnitedCambridge United24.87% 24.68% 49.00% 1.45%
WalsallWalsall24.44% 25.00% 49.02% 1.54%
BromleyBromley24.19% 24.51% 49.74% 1.56%
ChesterfieldChesterfield23.31% 23.97% 51.16% 1.56%
Crewe AlexandraCrewe Alexandra21.86% 24.15% 52.39% 1.60%
Salford CitySalford19.68% 22.89% 55.23% 2.20%
Swindon TownSwindon20.29% 23.45% 54.03% 2.23%
Fleetwood TownFleetwood Town18.94% 23.47% 54.95% 2.64%
BarnetBarnet18.13% 23.01% 56.04% 2.82%
Grimsby TownGrimsby Town17.44% 21.74% 58.10% 2.72%
GillinghamGillingham13.09% 19.15% 63.91% 3.85%
Colchester UnitedColchester United11.82% 18.36% 65.42% 4.40%
Crawley TownCrawley Town10.74% 17.49% 66.18% 5.59%
Harrogate TownHarrogate Town8.71% 15.02% 69.96% 6.31%
Tranmere RoversTranmere Rovers8.89% 15.37% 68.81% 6.93%
Notts CountyNotts County8.34% 14.96% 69.69% 7.01%
Bristol RoversBristol Rovers5.22% 11.24% 72.73% 10.81%
BarrowBarrow4.51% 9.82% 72.51% 13.16%
Milton Keynes DonsMK Dons3.89% 9.85% 73.30% 12.96%
Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury Town3.70% 8.31% 72.54% 15.45%
Oldham AthleticOldham Athletic2.99% 7.73% 72.03% 17.25%
Accrington StanleyAccrington2.11% 6.26% 69.28% 22.35%
Cheltenham TownCheltenham Town1.85% 5.95% 70.12% 22.08%
Newport CountyNewport County0.99% 3.62% 63.86% 31.53%

Final League Position Projection

A projection of the likelihood of where each team will finish in the table, based on ELO scores and 10,000 simulations of the remainder of the season.

Club 123456789101112131415161718192021222324
Club 123456789101112131415161718192021222324
Cambridge UnitedCambridge United9.4 8.2 7.3 6.8 6.1 6.1 5.8 4.7 5.0 4.9 4.4 4.2 3.8 3.6 3.1 3.1 2.9 2.4 2.0 2.0 1.5 1.3 0.8 0.7
WalsallWalsall9.3 7.9 7.3 6.7 6.4 6.2 5.7 5.6 4.7 4.9 4.3 4.1 3.6 3.2 3.0 3.1 2.9 2.6 2.2 2.0 1.5 1.3 0.9 0.7
BromleyBromley8.8 8.1 7.3 6.4 6.3 5.8 6.0 5.1 4.9 4.7 4.2 4.5 3.8 3.6 3.2 3.1 2.8 2.7 2.2 1.9 1.8 1.3 1.1 0.5
ChesterfieldChesterfield8.6 7.7 7.1 6.3 6.4 5.7 5.5 5.0 5.1 4.8 4.5 4.1 4.1 4.0 3.5 3.1 3.0 2.8 2.4 1.9 1.6 1.4 1.0 0.6
Crewe AlexandraCrewe Alexandra7.9 7.3 6.6 6.5 5.9 6.1 5.7 5.4 5.4 5.0 4.5 4.1 3.9 3.9 3.6 3.1 2.9 2.7 2.3 2.0 2.0 1.5 0.9 0.7
Salford CitySalford7.3 6.2 6.1 6.2 5.9 6.1 4.7 5.4 5.3 5.0 4.8 4.5 3.8 4.2 3.8 3.8 3.2 2.9 2.9 2.2 2.0 1.7 1.3 0.9
Swindon TownSwindon6.7 7.3 6.4 6.3 6.2 5.5 5.5 5.2 4.9 5.1 4.6 4.5 4.1 3.7 3.7 3.5 3.4 2.9 2.6 2.3 2.2 1.5 1.5 0.8
Fleetwood TownFleetwood Town6.7 6.2 6.1 6.2 6.0 5.8 5.6 5.0 4.9 4.7 4.3 4.6 4.3 4.2 3.7 3.3 3.0 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.5 2.1 1.6 1.1
BarnetBarnet5.8 6.3 6.0 6.1 5.9 5.4 5.6 5.4 5.1 5.1 4.8 4.3 4.3 4.3 3.3 3.5 3.1 3.1 3.0 2.6 2.3 2.0 1.6 1.2
Grimsby TownGrimsby Town6.1 5.5 5.9 6.1 5.4 5.2 5.1 5.5 5.2 4.6 4.8 4.4 4.4 4.2 3.9 3.8 3.4 3.4 3.1 2.8 2.1 2.5 1.7 1.0
GillinghamGillingham4.0 4.1 4.9 4.5 5.0 4.7 4.9 5.0 4.9 4.7 4.7 4.5 4.8 4.8 4.9 4.1 4.1 4.1 3.8 3.3 3.3 3.0 2.4 1.5
Colchester UnitedColchester United3.5 4.0 4.3 4.4 4.9 4.8 4.4 4.8 4.8 4.9 5.3 4.3 4.9 4.8 4.5 4.2 4.3 4.5 4.0 3.9 3.2 3.2 2.6 1.8
Crawley TownCrawley Town3.1 3.6 4.1 4.3 4.1 4.5 4.6 4.4 4.7 4.5 4.7 4.4 4.6 4.4 4.8 4.8 4.6 4.3 4.3 3.9 4.2 3.8 2.9 2.7
Harrogate TownHarrogate Town2.6 2.7 3.4 3.3 3.7 3.9 4.1 4.6 4.6 4.4 4.4 5.0 5.1 4.9 5.0 5.0 5.1 4.4 4.1 4.9 4.4 4.1 3.6 2.7
Tranmere RoversTranmere Rovers2.5 3.1 3.3 3.4 3.6 4.3 4.2 4.0 4.1 4.0 4.5 4.9 4.5 4.9 5.1 4.8 4.7 4.8 4.5 5.0 4.5 4.4 3.7 3.3
Notts CountyNotts County2.3 2.6 3.5 3.3 3.6 3.8 4.3 4.2 4.1 4.0 4.4 4.5 4.7 5.0 4.9 5.0 4.8 4.9 5.0 5.1 4.8 4.5 3.9 3.1
Bristol RoversBristol Rovers1.1 2.1 2.0 2.5 2.4 3.0 3.4 3.4 3.5 4.1 4.1 4.8 4.4 4.6 4.8 5.1 5.4 5.5 5.5 5.6 6.0 6.0 5.4 5.4
BarrowBarrow1.2 1.6 1.7 2.0 2.4 2.6 2.9 3.3 3.5 3.6 3.8 3.9 4.3 4.5 4.8 5.2 5.5 5.8 6.3 5.8 6.1 6.3 6.9 6.3
Milton Keynes DonsMK Dons0.9 1.5 1.5 2.3 2.4 2.6 2.6 3.1 3.1 3.5 3.9 3.9 4.8 4.1 5.1 5.5 5.8 5.3 6.0 6.1 6.6 6.6 7.3 5.6
Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury Town0.9 1.2 1.6 1.7 2.0 2.1 2.5 3.0 3.0 3.6 3.9 4.0 4.3 4.4 4.8 5.4 5.2 5.9 5.7 6.1 6.4 7.1 7.5 7.9
Oldham AthleticOldham Athletic0.8 1.0 1.2 1.8 1.7 2.2 2.1 2.5 2.9 3.0 3.6 3.7 4.0 4.1 5.0 4.8 5.1 5.8 6.4 6.3 7.3 7.5 8.3 9.0
Accrington StanleyAccrington0.3 0.8 1.0 1.3 1.6 1.5 1.9 2.1 2.5 2.7 2.8 3.3 3.4 3.7 4.1 4.2 4.7 5.8 6.2 7.1 7.8 8.8 10.5 11.9
Cheltenham TownCheltenham Town0.3 0.7 0.8 1.1 1.5 1.4 2.0 2.1 2.4 2.4 2.7 3.2 3.5 4.0 4.2 4.7 5.4 5.7 6.6 7.2 7.4 8.6 9.7 12.3
Newport CountyNewport County0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.3 1.5 1.9 2.0 2.4 2.7 3.0 3.5 3.7 4.8 5.1 6.1 7.3 8.8 9.9 13.0 18.6

Final League Table Projection

A projection of the final league table, based on expected points calculated from ELO scores. The projected points range shows the likely range of points for each team – for example, Cambridge United have a 90% chance of finishing between 50 and 91 points, a 50% chance of finishing between 62 and 79 points (this is the interquartile range), with their median expected points being 71.

Pos. Team Actual Projected Projected Points Range
P W D L Pts To Play Win % Draw % Loss % 90% range 50% range Exp. Pts
1 Cambridge United Cambridge United 4 2 1 1 7 42 41.8% 26.4% 31.9% 50 - 91 62 - 79 71
2 Walsall Walsall 4 2 0 2 6 42 42.4% 26.4% 31.1% 50 - 91 62 - 79 71
3 Bromley Bromley 4 2 2 0 8 42 40.7% 26.5% 32.9% 50 - 91 62 - 79 70
4 Chesterfield Chesterfield 4 3 0 1 9 42 39.7% 26.6% 33.7% 50 - 91 61 - 79 70
5 Crewe Alexandra Crewe Alexandra 4 4 0 0 12 42 37.0% 26.6% 36.4% 49 - 91 61 - 78 70
6 Salford City Salford 4 3 0 1 9 42 38.7% 26.4% 34.9% 49 - 90 60 - 77 69
7 Swindon Town Swindon 4 2 0 2 6 42 41.1% 26.4% 32.5% 48 - 89 60 - 77 69
8 Fleetwood Town Fleetwood Town 4 2 1 1 7 42 39.7% 26.6% 33.7% 47 - 89 60 - 77 68
9 Barnet Barnet 4 1 0 3 3 42 42.7% 26.2% 31.0% 47 - 88 59 - 77 68
10 Grimsby Town Grimsby Town 4 3 1 0 10 42 36.8% 26.6% 36.6% 47 - 88 59 - 76 67
11 Gillingham Gillingham 4 2 2 0 8 42 36.4% 26.7% 36.9% 45 - 86 57 - 74 65
12 Colchester United Colchester United 4 1 2 1 5 42 38.2% 26.5% 35.2% 44 - 85 56 - 73 64
13 Crawley Town Crawley Town 4 0 1 3 1 42 40.5% 26.6% 32.9% 43 - 84 54 - 72 63
14 Harrogate Town Harrogate Town 4 2 2 0 8 42 34.1% 26.7% 39.2% 42 - 83 54 - 71 62
15 Tranmere Rovers Tranmere Rovers 3 1 2 0 5 43 35.0% 26.7% 38.3% 41 - 83 53 - 70 61
16 Notts County Notts County 3 0 1 2 1 43 37.9% 26.6% 35.5% 41 - 82 53 - 70 61
17 Bristol Rovers Bristol Rovers 4 0 1 3 1 42 36.7% 26.6% 36.7% 39 - 79 50 - 67 58
18 Barrow Barrow 4 1 0 3 3 42 34.3% 26.6% 39.1% 38 - 78 49 - 66 57
19 Milton Keynes Dons MK Dons 4 2 2 0 8 42 30.2% 26.3% 43.6% 38 - 77 49 - 65 57
20 Shrewsbury Town Shrewsbury Town 3 0 1 2 1 43 33.9% 26.7% 39.4% 36 - 77 48 - 65 56
21 Oldham Athletic Oldham Athletic 4 0 3 1 3 42 32.5% 26.3% 41.2% 35 - 76 46 - 63 55
22 Accrington Stanley Accrington 3 0 1 2 1 43 31.5% 26.3% 42.2% 33 - 74 44 - 61 53
23 Cheltenham Town Cheltenham Town 4 0 0 4 0 42 33.1% 26.5% 40.3% 33 - 73 44 - 61 53
24 Newport County Newport County 4 1 1 2 4 42 27.6% 25.7% 46.7% 31 - 70 41 - 57 49