This page shows a projection of the league table based on current ELO scores - by calculating the percentage likelihood of each remaining match, an "expected points" score is assigned to each club's matches, and from that, their final expected points total for the season is estimated. Standard deviation from this expected points total is also calculated and displayed, to give a likely range of points values for each team.
Inspired by ClubELO.com, the ELO rating system is a method of calculating and comparing the relative strengths of teams in competition. For every match played, the ELO scores of the two teams are considered, and adjusted for other factors (such as home advantage), to calculate the likelihood of the match result. When the actual result of the game is known, the ELO score is adjusted accordingly, comparing the expected outcome of the game with the actual outcome - so a victory over Manchester United will be worth more points than one over Supermarine. The resulting ELO score can be used to compare the strengths of teams over time, and to project future results based on the current form of all teams.
EFL Sky Bet League Two
Final Points Projection
A projection of the likelihood of the number of points that each team will accumulate, based on ELO scores and 10,000 simulations of the remainder of the season - the initial bar shows the current points, then the lighter colours show the potential points range where each team may finish on - the darker the shade, the higher the likelihood of the team finishing on that number of points.
Final League Outcome Projection
A projection of the likelihood of the season's outcome for each team, based on ELO scores and 10,000 simulations of the remainder of the season.
| Club | Promotion | Play-offs | Midtable | Relegation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Fleetwood TownFleetwood Town | 24.87% | 23.37% | 49.93% | 1.83% |
 ChesterfieldChesterfield | 24.46% | 24.05% | 49.57% | 1.92% |
 WalsallWalsall | 24.22% | 24.84% | 48.73% | 2.21% |
 Cambridge UnitedCambridge United | 22.87% | 23.88% | 50.97% | 2.28% |
 BromleyBromley | 21.55% | 23.38% | 52.68% | 2.39% |
 Swindon TownSwindon | 20.31% | 22.74% | 54.19% | 2.76% |
 BarnetBarnet | 18.93% | 21.98% | 55.90% | 3.19% |
 Crewe AlexandraCrewe Alexandra | 15.92% | 19.97% | 60.13% | 3.98% |
 Salford CitySalford | 15.89% | 20.43% | 59.68% | 4.00% |
 Crawley TownCrawley Town | 14.02% | 19.74% | 61.27% | 4.97% |
 Colchester UnitedColchester United | 12.48% | 18.62% | 63.51% | 5.39% |
 Grimsby TownGrimsby Town | 12.39% | 17.76% | 64.64% | 5.21% |
 GillinghamGillingham | 12.05% | 17.67% | 64.48% | 5.80% |
 Tranmere RoversTranmere Rovers | 9.83% | 16.61% | 66.83% | 6.73% |
 Notts CountyNotts County | 9.87% | 16.29% | 66.52% | 7.32% |
 Harrogate TownHarrogate Town | 8.03% | 14.51% | 69.44% | 8.02% |
 Bristol RoversBristol Rovers | 6.95% | 13.83% | 70.03% | 9.19% |
 Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury Town | 4.55% | 10.68% | 71.03% | 13.74% |
 BarrowBarrow | 4.48% | 10.18% | 70.61% | 14.73% |
 Oldham AthleticOldham Athletic | 4.39% | 10.06% | 70.55% | 15.00% |
 Milton Keynes DonsMK Dons | 3.80% | 8.59% | 71.04% | 16.57% |
 Cheltenham TownCheltenham Town | 3.66% | 8.65% | 70.51% | 17.18% |
 Accrington StanleyAccrington | 2.67% | 6.83% | 70.02% | 20.48% |
 Newport CountyNewport County | 1.81% | 5.34% | 67.74% | 25.11% |
Final League Position Projection
A projection of the likelihood of where each team will finish in the table, based on ELO scores and 10,000 simulations of the remainder of the season.
| Club | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Club | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 |
| Fleetwood TownFleetwood Town | 9.6 | 8.5 | 6.8 | 6.2 | 6.0 | 5.9 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 4.8 | 4.5 | 4.2 | 4.0 | 3.7 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 3.1 | 3.0 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.6 |
| ChesterfieldChesterfield | 9.5 | 7.8 | 7.2 | 6.9 | 6.0 | 5.7 | 5.5 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 4.7 | 4.0 | 4.2 | 3.9 | 3.5 | 3.1 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 2.9 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.8 |
| WalsallWalsall | 8.9 | 7.6 | 7.7 | 6.9 | 6.2 | 6.0 | 5.7 | 4.8 | 4.6 | 4.7 | 4.0 | 4.1 | 3.6 | 3.7 | 3.6 | 2.8 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 1.0 |
| Cambridge UnitedCambridge United | 8.3 | 7.7 | 6.9 | 6.4 | 6.1 | 6.0 | 5.4 | 4.9 | 4.7 | 5.0 | 4.6 | 4.6 | 3.8 | 3.5 | 3.3 | 3.0 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 2.6 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 1.2 |
| BromleyBromley | 8.2 | 6.9 | 6.4 | 6.4 | 6.3 | 5.7 | 5.0 | 5.3 | 5.0 | 4.6 | 4.2 | 4.1 | 3.9 | 3.6 | 4.0 | 3.6 | 3.2 | 3.0 | 2.6 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 1.0 |
| Swindon TownSwindon | 7.6 | 6.3 | 6.4 | 6.3 | 5.9 | 5.4 | 5.1 | 5.4 | 5.1 | 4.4 | 4.8 | 4.1 | 4.0 | 3.5 | 3.9 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 1.2 |
| BarnetBarnet | 6.5 | 6.4 | 6.0 | 5.6 | 5.5 | 5.3 | 5.5 | 4.9 | 5.3 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 4.3 | 4.1 | 4.0 | 3.5 | 3.8 | 3.6 | 3.0 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 1.4 |
| Crewe AlexandraCrewe Alexandra | 5.6 | 5.1 | 5.3 | 4.8 | 5.4 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 5.4 | 5.0 | 4.7 | 4.6 | 4.2 | 4.5 | 4.2 | 3.9 | 4.1 | 3.8 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.1 | 2.9 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 1.6 |
| Salford CitySalford | 4.9 | 5.7 | 5.2 | 4.9 | 5.3 | 5.2 | 5.0 | 5.3 | 4.6 | 4.8 | 4.6 | 4.3 | 4.6 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.1 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.7 | 3.3 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 2.2 | 1.8 |
| Crawley TownCrawley Town | 4.4 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 5.1 | 4.8 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 4.7 | 4.6 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.6 | 4.3 | 4.4 | 4.2 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 3.7 | 3.5 | 3.3 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 2.8 | 2.2 |
| Colchester UnitedColchester United | 3.7 | 4.3 | 4.4 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 4.5 | 4.7 | 4.6 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.7 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 4.1 | 4.3 | 3.9 | 3.3 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 3.0 | 2.4 |
| Grimsby TownGrimsby Town | 3.9 | 4.1 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.6 | 4.7 | 4.8 | 4.3 | 5.0 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 4.0 | 4.3 | 3.7 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 3.2 | 2.9 | 2.4 |
| GillinghamGillingham | 3.6 | 4.1 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.1 | 4.7 | 4.6 | 4.5 | 4.6 | 4.4 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 4.7 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 3.9 | 3.8 | 3.9 | 3.4 | 3.0 | 2.8 |
| Tranmere RoversTranmere Rovers | 2.7 | 3.4 | 3.7 | 4.0 | 4.2 | 4.1 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 4.3 | 4.9 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.6 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.7 | 4.5 | 4.3 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 3.6 | 3.2 |
| Notts CountyNotts County | 2.8 | 3.4 | 3.7 | 3.9 | 4.0 | 4.3 | 4.0 | 4.5 | 4.6 | 4.5 | 4.6 | 4.7 | 4.3 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 4.6 | 4.6 | 4.6 | 4.7 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 4.0 | 4.2 | 3.2 |
| Harrogate TownHarrogate Town | 2.3 | 2.5 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.9 | 3.6 | 3.7 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 4.8 | 5.1 | 4.6 | 4.9 | 5.1 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 4.8 | 5.0 | 4.8 | 4.1 | 3.9 |
| Bristol RoversBristol Rovers | 2.0 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 3.1 | 3.0 | 3.6 | 4.2 | 3.6 | 3.8 | 4.3 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 4.7 | 5.0 | 5.2 | 4.9 | 5.2 | 5.1 | 4.8 | 4.5 | 4.7 |
| Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury Town | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 3.3 | 3.2 | 3.4 | 3.8 | 3.9 | 4.1 | 4.5 | 5.1 | 4.9 | 5.6 | 5.3 | 5.6 | 6.0 | 5.9 | 6.3 | 6.8 | 7.0 |
| BarrowBarrow | 1.0 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 3.3 | 3.0 | 3.5 | 3.7 | 4.2 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 4.8 | 4.9 | 5.0 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 5.9 | 6.0 | 6.6 | 7.4 | 7.4 |
| Oldham AthleticOldham Athletic | 0.9 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 3.5 | 3.3 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 4.7 | 4.3 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 5.3 | 5.2 | 5.9 | 6.0 | 6.2 | 6.8 | 7.6 | 7.5 |
| Milton Keynes DonsMK Dons | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 3.1 | 3.3 | 3.6 | 3.8 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 4.4 | 5.0 | 4.9 | 5.4 | 5.9 | 6.3 | 7.0 | 7.8 | 7.8 | 8.8 |
| Cheltenham TownCheltenham Town | 0.7 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 3.0 | 2.7 | 3.2 | 3.7 | 3.6 | 3.7 | 3.9 | 4.2 | 4.4 | 4.8 | 5.0 | 5.1 | 5.6 | 6.8 | 6.9 | 7.1 | 8.1 | 9.1 |
| Accrington StanleyAccrington | 0.5 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 3.3 | 3.6 | 4.3 | 4.0 | 4.8 | 5.2 | 5.3 | 6.1 | 7.0 | 7.3 | 8.5 | 9.4 | 11.1 |
| Newport CountyNewport County | 0.3 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 3.1 | 3.7 | 4.1 | 4.3 | 5.1 | 5.5 | 6.2 | 7.2 | 8.1 | 9.3 | 11.1 | 14.0 |
Final League Table Projection
A projection of the final league table, based on expected points calculated from ELO scores. The projected points range shows the likely range of points for each team – for example, Fleetwood Town have a 90% chance of finishing between 49 and 92 points, a 50% chance of finishing between 61 and 79 points (this is the interquartile range), with their median expected points being 70.
| Pos. | Team | Actual | Projected | Projected Points Range | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P | W | D | L | Pts | To Play | Win % | Draw % | Loss % | 90% range | 50% range | Exp. Pts | ||
| 1 |
Fleetwood Town
Fleetwood Town
|
2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 44 | 40.0% | 26.5% | 33.5% | 49 - 92 | 61 - 79 | 70 |
| 2 |
Chesterfield
Chesterfield
|
2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 44 | 39.9% | 26.3% | 33.8% | 49 - 92 | 61 - 79 | 70 |
| 3 |
Walsall
Walsall
|
2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 44 | 42.2% | 26.2% | 31.6% | 48 - 92 | 61 - 79 | 70 |
| 4 |
Cambridge United
Cambridge United
|
2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 44 | 41.7% | 26.3% | 32.0% | 49 - 91 | 61 - 79 | 70 |
| 5 |
Bromley
Bromley
|
2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 44 | 40.5% | 26.5% | 33.0% | 48 - 91 | 60 - 78 | 69 |
| 6 |
Swindon Town
Swindon
|
2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 44 | 40.9% | 26.4% | 32.8% | 47 - 91 | 60 - 77 | 68 |
| 7 |
Barnet
Barnet
|
2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 44 | 42.5% | 26.3% | 31.1% | 46 - 89 | 59 - 77 | 68 |
| 8 |
Crewe Alexandra
Crewe Alexandra
|
2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 44 | 36.8% | 26.5% | 36.7% | 45 - 88 | 57 - 75 | 66 |
| 9 |
Salford City
Salford
|
2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 44 | 39.0% | 26.6% | 34.3% | 45 - 88 | 57 - 75 | 66 |
| 10 |
Crawley Town
Crawley Town
|
2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 44 | 40.5% | 26.5% | 33.0% | 44 - 87 | 56 - 74 | 65 |
| 11 |
Colchester United
Colchester United
|
2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 44 | 38.3% | 26.6% | 35.1% | 43 - 86 | 55 - 73 | 64 |
| 12 |
Grimsby Town
Grimsby Town
|
2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 44 | 36.7% | 26.6% | 36.8% | 43 - 86 | 55 - 73 | 64 |
| 13 |
Gillingham
Gillingham
|
2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 44 | 36.5% | 26.7% | 36.9% | 43 - 86 | 55 - 73 | 64 |
| 14 |
Tranmere Rovers
Tranmere Rovers
|
2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 44 | 35.4% | 26.6% | 38.0% | 42 - 83 | 53 - 71 | 62 |
| 15 |
Notts County
Notts County
|
2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 44 | 37.6% | 26.7% | 35.8% | 41 - 84 | 53 - 71 | 62 |
| 16 |
Harrogate Town
Harrogate Town
|
2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 44 | 34.3% | 26.6% | 39.1% | 41 - 82 | 52 - 70 | 61 |
| 17 |
Bristol Rovers
Bristol Rovers
|
2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 44 | 36.6% | 26.6% | 36.7% | 39 - 82 | 51 - 69 | 60 |
| 18 |
Shrewsbury Town
Shrewsbury Town
|
2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 44 | 33.9% | 26.6% | 39.6% | 37 - 79 | 48 - 66 | 57 |
| 19 |
Barrow
Barrow
|
2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 44 | 34.3% | 26.6% | 39.2% | 36 - 78 | 48 - 66 | 57 |
| 20 |
Oldham Athletic
Oldham Athletic
|
2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 44 | 32.6% | 26.4% | 41.0% | 36 - 78 | 48 - 65 | 56 |
| 21 |
Milton Keynes Dons
MK Dons
|
2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 44 | 30.4% | 26.2% | 43.4% | 36 - 77 | 47 - 64 | 55 |
| 22 |
Cheltenham Town
Cheltenham Town
|
2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 44 | 33.2% | 26.5% | 40.2% | 35 - 77 | 47 - 64 | 55 |
| 23 |
Accrington Stanley
Accrington
|
2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 44 | 31.2% | 26.3% | 42.5% | 34 - 75 | 45 - 62 | 53 |
| 24 |
Newport County
Newport County
|
2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 44 | 27.7% | 25.7% | 46.6% | 33 - 73 | 43 - 60 | 51 |