Stat Attack

ELO League Table Projection

This page shows a projection of the league table based on current ELO scores - by calculating the percentage likelihood of each remaining match, an "expected points" score is assigned to each club's matches, and from that, their final expected points total for the season is estimated. Standard deviation from this expected points total is also calculated and displayed, to give a likely range of points values for each team.

Inspired by ClubELO.com, the ELO rating system is a method of calculating and comparing the relative strengths of teams in competition. For every match played, the ELO scores of the two teams are considered, and adjusted for other factors (such as home advantage), to calculate the likelihood of the match result. When the actual result of the game is known, the ELO score is adjusted accordingly, comparing the expected outcome of the game with the actual outcome - so a victory over Manchester United will be worth more points than one over Supermarine. The resulting ELO score can be used to compare the strengths of teams over time, and to project future results based on the current form of all teams.

EFL Sky Bet League Two

Final Points Projection

A projection of the likelihood of the number of points that each team will accumulate, based on ELO scores and 10,000 simulations of the remainder of the season - the initial bar shows the current points, then the lighter colours show the potential points range where each team may finish on - the darker the shade, the higher the likelihood of the team finishing on that number of points.

Final League Outcome Projection

A projection of the likelihood of the season's outcome for each team, based on ELO scores and 10,000 simulations of the remainder of the season.

Club PromotionPlay-offsMidtableRelegation
BromleyBromley90.38% 9.00% 0.62%
Cambridge UnitedCambridge United69.06% 26.81% 4.13%
Swindon TownSwindon36.94% 47.73% 15.33%
Notts CountyNotts County35.63% 46.72% 17.65%
Milton Keynes DonsMK Dons24.28% 50.49% 25.23%
Salford CitySalford13.20% 39.93% 46.87%
WalsallWalsall11.44% 39.65% 48.91%
ChesterfieldChesterfield5.28% 33.28% 61.44%
Crewe AlexandraCrewe Alexandra4.50% 31.35% 64.15%
BarnetBarnet2.57% 24.15% 73.28%
Grimsby TownGrimsby Town3.99% 23.56% 72.45%
Colchester UnitedColchester United2.16% 16.31% 81.53%
Fleetwood TownFleetwood Town0.17% 4.83% 95.00%
Oldham AthleticOldham Athletic0.26% 3.55% 96.19%
GillinghamGillingham0.12% 1.93% 97.95%
Accrington StanleyAccrington0.02% 0.71% 99.27%
Cheltenham TownCheltenham Town 98.27% 1.73%
Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury Town 98.57% 1.43%
Tranmere RoversTranmere Rovers 97.67% 2.33%
Bristol RoversBristol Rovers 88.24% 11.76%
Crawley TownCrawley Town 77.87% 22.13%
BarrowBarrow 72.96% 27.04%
Harrogate TownHarrogate Town 43.74% 56.26%
Newport CountyNewport County 22.68% 77.32%

Final League Position Projection

A projection of the likelihood of where each team will finish in the table, based on ELO scores and 10,000 simulations of the remainder of the season.

Club 123456789101112131415161718192021222324
Club 123456789101112131415161718192021222324
BromleyBromley57.5 22.7 10.1 4.6 2.5 1.2 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0
Cambridge UnitedCambridge United23.9 27.5 17.7 11.3 7.9 4.8 2.9 1.8 1.2 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
Swindon TownSwindon5.5 13.9 17.5 16.2 13.6 10.4 7.5 5.7 4.0 2.7 1.6 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Notts CountyNotts County5.8 13.8 16.0 15.4 12.8 10.6 8.0 6.0 4.8 3.0 2.0 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
Milton Keynes DonsMK Dons3.3 8.6 12.3 13.6 14.0 12.5 10.4 8.7 6.5 4.5 2.9 1.7 0.6 0.2 0.0
Salford CitySalford1.5 4.5 7.2 8.5 9.8 10.6 11.0 9.7 9.2 8.5 6.8 5.8 3.6 2.0 0.8 0.4 0.0 0.0
WalsallWalsall1.3 3.8 6.3 8.3 9.6 10.6 11.1 10.7 9.1 8.1 7.4 5.9 3.9 2.5 1.0 0.3 0.0
ChesterfieldChesterfield0.3 1.4 3.5 5.8 7.3 9.2 11.0 10.9 10.6 10.2 9.3 8.0 6.2 3.6 1.9 0.6 0.2
Crewe AlexandraCrewe Alexandra0.3 1.3 2.9 5.4 7.1 8.9 10.0 10.8 11.6 11.3 10.6 8.7 5.8 3.4 1.7 0.4 0.0 0.0
BarnetBarnet0.1 0.7 1.7 3.7 5.2 6.9 8.4 10.2 11.7 11.9 12.1 10.6 7.9 5.3 2.7 0.8 0.1 0.1
Grimsby TownGrimsby Town0.3 1.1 2.7 3.8 5.2 6.5 8.1 9.0 10.0 11.4 11.0 9.9 8.8 6.5 4.1 1.2 0.3 0.1
Colchester UnitedColchester United0.1 0.6 1.5 2.5 3.3 4.7 5.8 7.4 9.6 10.2 11.4 12.2 11.2 9.1 6.0 3.1 1.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
Fleetwood TownFleetwood Town 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.4 2.2 3.5 4.4 6.6 8.3 10.2 13.8 15.6 14.5 10.2 5.1 1.8 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0
Oldham AthleticOldham Athletic 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.0 1.5 2.6 3.4 4.9 6.8 9.9 13.1 15.3 15.8 13.1 7.1 2.8 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0
GillinghamGillingham 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.6 1.0 1.8 2.4 3.9 5.7 8.2 11.8 15.6 18.4 15.5 8.6 4.0 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.0
Accrington StanleyAccrington0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.4 2.0 3.6 5.7 9.8 14.1 18.9 22.0 12.4 5.8 2.1 0.6 0.1 0.0
Cheltenham TownCheltenham Town 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.1 2.2 4.9 9.7 17.3 20.0 17.4 12.5 8.0 4.6 1.4 0.3
Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury Town 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.9 4.2 8.8 17.7 20.5 18.4 14.0 8.6 3.7 1.3 0.2
Tranmere RoversTranmere Rovers 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.9 3.7 9.1 17.0 19.4 19.0 12.8 8.8 4.6 1.9 0.4
Bristol RoversBristol Rovers 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.8 3.2 7.0 12.2 15.1 18.8 17.2 13.4 8.9 2.9
Crawley TownCrawley Town 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 2.6 5.7 10.7 16.0 20.9 21.2 14.9 7.2
BarrowBarrow 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.9 2.8 5.6 9.2 14.6 18.3 21.1 17.6 9.5
Harrogate TownHarrogate Town 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.4 3.5 6.8 11.8 19.6 31.4 24.9
Newport CountyNewport County 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.5 3.0 6.1 11.6 22.7 54.6

Final League Table Projection

A projection of the final league table, based on expected points calculated from ELO scores. The projected points range shows the likely range of points for each team – for example, Bromley have a 90% chance of finishing between 78 and 94 points, a 50% chance of finishing between 83 and 89 points (this is the interquartile range), with their median expected points being 86.

Pos. Team Actual Projected Projected Points Range
P W D L Pts To Play Win % Draw % Loss % 90% range 50% range Exp. Pts
1 Bromley Bromley 34 19 11 4 68 12 41.2% 26.7% 32.1% 78 - 94 83 - 89 86
2 Cambridge United Cambridge United 34 18 10 6 64 12 40.5% 26.8% 32.7% 74 - 90 78 - 85 82
3 Swindon Town Swindon 35 19 5 11 62 11 39.3% 26.5% 34.1% 70 - 86 75 - 81 78
4 Notts County Notts County 34 18 7 9 61 12 36.9% 26.8% 36.4% 69 - 86 74 - 81 77
5 Milton Keynes Dons MK Dons 34 17 11 6 62 12 29.3% 26.5% 44.2% 68 - 84 72 - 79 76
6 Salford City Salford 33 17 4 12 55 13 38.8% 26.9% 34.2% 65 - 83 70 - 77 74
7 Walsall Walsall 33 15 8 10 53 13 42.8% 26.4% 30.8% 64 - 82 69 - 77 73
8 Chesterfield Chesterfield 34 13 14 7 53 12 41.8% 26.8% 31.4% 63 - 80 68 - 75 71
9 Crewe Alexandra Crewe Alexandra 35 16 8 11 56 11 36.7% 26.7% 36.6% 63 - 79 68 - 74 71
10 Barnet Barnet 35 14 11 10 53 11 42.0% 26.6% 31.4% 62 - 78 67 - 73 70
11 Grimsby Town Grimsby Town 33 14 10 9 52 13 36.3% 27.0% 36.7% 61 - 79 66 - 73 70
12 Colchester United Colchester United 33 13 10 10 49 13 38.5% 27.0% 34.4% 59 - 77 64 - 71 68
13 Fleetwood Town Fleetwood Town 33 12 9 12 45 13 38.9% 27.0% 34.1% 55 - 73 60 - 67 64
14 Oldham Athletic Oldham Athletic 32 11 12 9 45 14 32.7% 26.6% 40.7% 54 - 72 59 - 66 62
15 Gillingham Gillingham 33 11 11 11 44 13 36.0% 26.6% 37.4% 53 - 70 58 - 65 61
16 Accrington Stanley Accrington 34 13 7 14 46 12 29.7% 26.9% 43.4% 52 - 68 56 - 63 60
17 Cheltenham Town Cheltenham Town 33 10 6 17 36 13 33.1% 26.6% 40.3% 44 - 61 49 - 56 52
18 Shrewsbury Town Shrewsbury Town 35 10 8 17 38 11 33.6% 26.8% 39.6% 45 - 60 49 - 55 52
19 Tranmere Rovers Tranmere Rovers 34 9 8 17 35 12 36.7% 27.0% 36.4% 43 - 60 48 - 55 51
20 Bristol Rovers Bristol Rovers 34 9 4 21 31 12 37.2% 27.1% 35.7% 39 - 56 44 - 51 48
21 Crawley Town Crawley Town 35 6 10 19 28 11 41.7% 26.8% 31.6% 37 - 53 41 - 48 45
22 Barrow Barrow 33 7 6 20 27 13 34.9% 26.8% 38.3% 36 - 53 40 - 48 44
23 Harrogate Town Harrogate Town 35 6 9 20 27 11 33.5% 27.0% 39.4% 34 - 49 38 - 44 41
24 Newport County Newport County 34 6 7 21 25 12 27.7% 25.9% 46.5% 31 - 46 35 - 41 38