This page shows a projection of the league table based on current ELO scores - by calculating the percentage likelihood of each remaining match, an "expected points" score is assigned to each club's matches, and from that, their final expected points total for the season is estimated. Standard deviation from this expected points total is also calculated and displayed, to give a likely range of points values for each team.
Inspired by ClubELO.com, the ELO rating system is a method of calculating and comparing the relative strengths of teams in competition. For every match played, the ELO scores of the two teams are considered, and adjusted for other factors (such as home advantage), to calculate the likelihood of the match result. When the actual result of the game is known, the ELO score is adjusted accordingly, comparing the expected outcome of the game with the actual outcome - so a victory over Manchester United will be worth more points than one over Supermarine. The resulting ELO score can be used to compare the strengths of teams over time, and to project future results based on the current form of all teams.
EFL Sky Bet League Two
Final Points Projection
A projection of the likelihood of the number of points that each team will accumulate, based on ELO scores and 10,000 simulations of the remainder of the season - the initial bar shows the current points, then the lighter colours show the potential points range where each team may finish on - the darker the shade, the higher the likelihood of the team finishing on that number of points.
Final League Outcome Projection
A projection of the likelihood of the season's outcome for each team, based on ELO scores and 10,000 simulations of the remainder of the season.
| Club | Promotion | Play-offs | Midtable | Relegation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 BarnetBarnet | 42.05% | 27.87% | 29.90% | 0.18% |
 York CityYork City | 39.53% | 28.10% | 32.10% | 0.27% |
 Bristol RoversBristol Rovers | 31.45% | 27.86% | 40.24% | 0.45% |
 Swindon TownSwindon | 22.04% | 26.34% | 50.76% | 0.86% |
 Grimsby TownGrimsby Town | 22.21% | 25.72% | 51.26% | 0.81% |
 Exeter CityExeter City | 19.71% | 26.61% | 52.35% | 1.33% |
 Oldham AthleticOldham Athletic | 14.59% | 22.89% | 60.39% | 2.13% |
 Salford CitySalford | 14.00% | 22.21% | 61.77% | 2.02% |
 Fleetwood TownFleetwood Town | 13.78% | 21.79% | 62.62% | 1.81% |
 ChesterfieldChesterfield | 13.86% | 21.57% | 62.28% | 2.29% |
 Crewe AlexandraCrewe Alexandra | 12.10% | 21.34% | 64.20% | 2.36% |
 WalsallWalsall | 12.48% | 20.74% | 64.67% | 2.11% |
 Colchester UnitedColchester United | 9.90% | 19.07% | 68.02% | 3.01% |
 Rotherham UnitedRotherham United | 8.51% | 16.71% | 70.66% | 4.12% |
 Port ValePort Vale | 8.00% | 17.03% | 70.41% | 4.56% |
 Cheltenham TownCheltenham Town | 4.27% | 12.22% | 76.48% | 7.03% |
 Northampton TownNorthampton Town | 2.78% | 8.98% | 77.49% | 10.75% |
 RochdaleRochdale | 2.37% | 8.38% | 77.86% | 11.39% |
 Tranmere RoversTranmere Rovers | 1.96% | 6.30% | 77.84% | 13.90% |
 GillinghamGillingham | 1.86% | 6.07% | 77.06% | 15.01% |
 Accrington StanleyAccrington | 1.00% | 4.64% | 73.46% | 20.90% |
 Crawley TownCrawley Town | 0.83% | 3.89% | 73.19% | 22.09% |
 Newport CountyNewport County | 0.46% | 2.25% | 64.33% | 32.96% |
 Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury Town | 0.26% | 1.42% | 60.66% | 37.66% |
Final League Position Projection
A projection of the likelihood of where each team will finish in the table, based on ELO scores and 10,000 simulations of the remainder of the season.
| Club | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Club | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 |
| BarnetBarnet | 18.2 | 13.1 | 10.8 | 8.7 | 7.3 | 6.3 | 5.6 | 4.9 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 3.0 | 2.7 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| York CityYork City | 17.0 | 12.7 | 9.9 | 8.8 | 7.3 | 6.1 | 5.9 | 4.8 | 4.3 | 4.1 | 3.6 | 2.8 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| Bristol RoversBristol Rovers | 12.0 | 10.3 | 9.2 | 7.9 | 7.4 | 6.3 | 6.3 | 5.2 | 5.0 | 4.4 | 4.0 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.1 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| Swindon TownSwindon | 7.5 | 7.1 | 7.4 | 7.4 | 6.5 | 6.5 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 5.6 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 3.7 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| Grimsby TownGrimsby Town | 7.3 | 7.4 | 7.5 | 6.6 | 6.7 | 6.4 | 6.0 | 6.3 | 5.6 | 5.3 | 4.4 | 4.7 | 4.2 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.0 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.3 |
| Exeter CityExeter City | 6.0 | 7.0 | 6.7 | 7.1 | 6.6 | 6.6 | 6.3 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 4.9 | 4.2 | 4.0 | 3.7 | 3.6 | 3.4 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.5 |
| Oldham AthleticOldham Athletic | 4.3 | 4.7 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 5.8 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 5.4 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 4.6 | 4.8 | 4.4 | 4.1 | 3.4 | 3.2 | 2.9 | 2.6 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.9 |
| Salford CitySalford | 4.0 | 5.1 | 4.9 | 5.5 | 5.6 | 5.7 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 5.7 | 5.4 | 5.3 | 4.8 | 5.0 | 4.9 | 4.5 | 3.8 | 3.5 | 3.7 | 3.2 | 2.7 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.7 |
| Fleetwood TownFleetwood Town | 3.9 | 4.5 | 5.4 | 5.5 | 5.6 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 5.6 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.7 | 4.9 | 4.5 | 3.9 | 4.0 | 3.7 | 3.0 | 2.9 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.7 |
| ChesterfieldChesterfield | 3.6 | 5.2 | 5.1 | 4.9 | 5.5 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 5.8 | 5.3 | 5.1 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 4.6 | 4.4 | 3.7 | 4.1 | 3.5 | 3.3 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.9 |
| Crewe AlexandraCrewe Alexandra | 3.2 | 4.2 | 4.7 | 4.9 | 5.2 | 5.6 | 5.7 | 5.8 | 5.2 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.4 | 5.1 | 4.9 | 4.6 | 4.6 | 4.0 | 3.7 | 3.5 | 2.8 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 0.9 |
| WalsallWalsall | 3.5 | 4.4 | 4.6 | 4.9 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 5.5 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 4.7 | 4.6 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 3.8 | 3.4 | 3.1 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.7 |
| Colchester UnitedColchester United | 2.6 | 3.4 | 3.9 | 4.3 | 4.8 | 4.9 | 5.2 | 5.3 | 5.2 | 5.7 | 5.4 | 5.2 | 5.0 | 5.3 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.1 | 3.6 | 2.9 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 1.1 |
| Rotherham UnitedRotherham United | 2.2 | 3.0 | 3.3 | 3.8 | 4.1 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 4.9 | 5.1 | 4.5 | 5.5 | 5.8 | 5.0 | 5.1 | 5.3 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 4.0 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 3.4 | 3.1 | 2.5 | 1.6 |
| Port ValePort Vale | 1.8 | 2.6 | 3.6 | 4.0 | 3.8 | 4.7 | 4.6 | 4.4 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.4 | 5.5 | 5.1 | 5.4 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 4.7 | 4.9 | 4.3 | 3.9 | 3.6 | 3.3 | 2.8 | 1.8 |
| Cheltenham TownCheltenham Town | 1.1 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 2.6 | 3.0 | 3.1 | 3.5 | 3.8 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 4.9 | 5.2 | 5.4 | 5.2 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 5.4 | 5.9 | 5.4 | 5.0 | 5.6 | 4.8 | 4.1 | 3.0 |
| Northampton TownNorthampton Town | 0.5 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 2.9 | 3.2 | 3.4 | 3.8 | 4.2 | 4.4 | 5.4 | 5.8 | 5.7 | 6.3 | 6.0 | 6.3 | 6.5 | 6.8 | 6.8 | 6.0 | 4.7 |
| RochdaleRochdale | 0.4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 2.9 | 3.1 | 3.9 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 4.6 | 4.7 | 5.2 | 5.5 | 5.4 | 6.1 | 6.8 | 7.0 | 7.2 | 6.7 | 5.9 | 5.5 |
| Tranmere RoversTranmere Rovers | 0.3 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 3.3 | 3.9 | 4.3 | 4.7 | 5.2 | 5.6 | 6.3 | 6.7 | 7.2 | 7.1 | 7.7 | 7.9 | 7.1 | 6.8 |
| GillinghamGillingham | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 3.1 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 4.1 | 4.5 | 5.4 | 5.6 | 5.9 | 6.4 | 6.8 | 7.9 | 8.0 | 7.8 | 7.9 | 7.1 |
| Accrington StanleyAccrington | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 3.7 | 3.6 | 4.3 | 5.1 | 6.0 | 6.1 | 6.8 | 8.3 | 8.6 | 9.8 | 10.2 | 10.7 |
| Crawley TownCrawley Town | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.4 | 3.1 | 3.4 | 3.9 | 4.5 | 5.2 | 5.7 | 6.3 | 7.0 | 7.8 | 8.4 | 9.9 | 10.5 | 11.6 |
| Newport CountyNewport County | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 3.2 | 3.9 | 5.1 | 5.8 | 6.5 | 7.5 | 9.3 | 11.0 | 14.7 | 18.3 |
| Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury Town | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 3.4 | 4.3 | 5.4 | 6.3 | 7.3 | 8.8 | 11.6 | 15.9 | 21.8 |
Final League Table Projection
A projection of the final league table, based on expected points calculated from ELO scores. The projected points range shows the likely range of points for each team – for example, Barnet have a 90% chance of finishing between 57 and 97 points, a 50% chance of finishing between 69 and 86 points (this is the interquartile range), with their median expected points being 78.
| Pos. | Team | Actual | Projected | Projected Points Range | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P | W | D | L | Pts | To Play | Win % | Draw % | Loss % | 90% range | 50% range | Exp. Pts | ||
| 1 |
Barnet
Barnet
|
5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 9 | 41 | 47.3% | 25.2% | 27.5% | 57 - 97 | 69 - 86 | 78 |
| 2 |
York City
York City
|
5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 41 | 47.5% | 25.2% | 27.3% | 56 - 96 | 68 - 85 | 77 |
| 3 |
Bristol Rovers
Bristol Rovers
|
5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 41 | 41.8% | 26.2% | 32.0% | 54 - 94 | 66 - 83 | 74 |
| 4 |
Swindon Town
Swindon
|
5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 41 | 40.8% | 26.2% | 33.0% | 51 - 91 | 63 - 79 | 71 |
| 5 |
Grimsby Town
Grimsby Town
|
5 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 7 | 41 | 43.1% | 26.0% | 31.0% | 51 - 90 | 62 - 79 | 71 |
| 6 |
Exeter City
Exeter City
|
5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 41 | 44.0% | 25.9% | 30.0% | 50 - 90 | 61 - 78 | 70 |
| 7 |
Oldham Athletic
Oldham Athletic
|
5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 41 | 40.2% | 26.2% | 33.6% | 47 - 87 | 59 - 76 | 67 |
| 8 |
Salford City
Salford
|
5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 41 | 40.8% | 26.3% | 33.0% | 47 - 87 | 59 - 75 | 67 |
| 9 |
Fleetwood Town
Fleetwood Town
|
5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 9 | 41 | 38.3% | 26.4% | 35.3% | 47 - 87 | 58 - 75 | 67 |
| 10 |
Chesterfield
Chesterfield
|
5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 41 | 41.3% | 26.2% | 32.5% | 47 - 86 | 58 - 75 | 67 |
| 11 |
Crewe Alexandra
Crewe Alexandra
|
5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 9 | 41 | 37.6% | 26.4% | 36.0% | 46 - 86 | 58 - 74 | 66 |
| 12 |
Walsall
Walsall
|
5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 9 | 41 | 37.6% | 26.3% | 36.1% | 46 - 86 | 58 - 74 | 66 |
| 13 |
Colchester United
Colchester United
|
5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 41 | 38.2% | 26.3% | 35.5% | 45 - 85 | 56 - 73 | 65 |
| 14 |
Rotherham United
Rotherham United
|
5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 41 | 38.5% | 26.2% | 35.3% | 43 - 84 | 55 - 71 | 63 |
| 15 |
Port Vale
Port Vale
|
5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 41 | 40.6% | 26.2% | 33.1% | 43 - 83 | 54 - 71 | 63 |
| 16 |
Cheltenham Town
Cheltenham Town
|
5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 41 | 33.2% | 26.1% | 40.7% | 40 - 79 | 51 - 68 | 59 |
| 17 |
Northampton Town
Northampton Town
|
5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 41 | 32.3% | 26.0% | 41.7% | 37 - 77 | 48 - 64 | 56 |
| 18 |
Rochdale
Rochdale
|
5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 41 | 34.3% | 26.5% | 39.3% | 37 - 76 | 48 - 64 | 56 |
| 19 |
Tranmere Rovers
Tranmere Rovers
|
5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 9 | 41 | 28.4% | 25.6% | 46.0% | 36 - 74 | 46 - 62 | 54 |
| 20 |
Gillingham
Gillingham
|
5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 41 | 30.4% | 25.9% | 43.7% | 35 - 74 | 46 - 62 | 54 |
| 21 |
Accrington Stanley
Accrington
|
5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 41 | 29.1% | 25.8% | 45.1% | 33 - 71 | 43 - 59 | 51 |
| 22 |
Crawley Town
Crawley Town
|
5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 41 | 29.6% | 25.7% | 44.7% | 32 - 71 | 43 - 59 | 51 |
| 23 |
Newport County
Newport County
|
5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 41 | 26.8% | 25.3% | 47.9% | 30 - 67 | 39 - 55 | 47 |
| 24 |
Shrewsbury Town
Shrewsbury Town
|
5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 41 | 26.7% | 25.1% | 48.2% | 28 - 66 | 38 - 54 | 46 |